关于AVD， 我的深度思考

Yes, it is absolutely correct that most of the time one should NOT average down. This lesson alone is worth tens of thousands of dollars.

If you are good at timing, the time to buy more is when you strongly believe the down trend has lost steam, and has apparently REVERSED.

There is an exception, though:

When a stock plunges after you enter, and if you believe the plunge is RIDICULOUS and implies EXTREME undervaluation, you can actually take position BEFORE it reverses trend. Such opportunities seldom last long, so if you wait for reversal, you actually can miss the bargain hunting opportunity.

case 1:

when trv was around $98, being greedy, I kept waiting for further drop before entering. But the stock is a robust one, and at that PE, it was extremely undervalued. There is no further drop, and even if there is, it will very likely bounce back. It should be a very safe bet, even if it doesn't qualify as a trend reversal.

I didn't enter, and missed the ride. Today it has gone to $114, in a matter of a few weeks.

case 2:

when SAVE plunged to $43, I took position. In the next new few days it dropped to a frightening $34. I was at big loss by then. But the stock's drop was totally nonsense, nothing but out of wallstreet's idiocracy. With PE 9 and stable earnings, and past history of growth, the stock was very undervalued. I tripled down on that day. Today the price recovers to $37. At this point, my gain and loss roughly offset each other. If I had not AVD on that critical day, I would have been still at big loss by today.

所有跟帖： 

• 同意。我觉得FA的话会这样做。TA的话就不会。因为FA是相信一个道理。TA是随势。 -Fay大道- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 19:32:20

• 一般而言，即使是FA也应等趋势反转，但对于极度低估且把握大的股票，等反转可能会失去机会 -Labourse- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 19:36:07

• FA强的一定觉得低估了。比如捣乱当年的GPRO。跌的时候我拿不住，因为心里没底。可是有人就相信然后AVD大赚了。 -Fay大道- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 19:37:25

• 这个的确需要玩家对所玩股票有正确估值，有些股是无底的，有的有 -Labourse- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 19:56:03

• 油和气好像不太适合。average down. -水准- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 19:33:34

• 商品类我不懂，个人觉得很难谈得上有绝对底线 -Labourse- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 19:37:56

• 震荡走法可AVD。单边走法方向对AVU大赚,方向错AVD输的只剩遮羞布。 -牛熊交响曲- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 20:02:12

• 难就难在难以判断趋势。新手的理解，欢迎拍砖 -牛熊交响曲- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 20:03:56

• 以我为例，对于趋势我极其缺乏判断，经常受骗，最后只敢相信绝对价值的存在 -Labourse- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 20:17:07

• 你做的股票有绝对价值。俺炒3x不会判断方向，跟着雅歌，他的正确率蛮高的。所以就成了粉。 -牛熊交响曲- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/29/2015 postreply 20:21:13