从长远来看,长期的,固定的(定期的)投资才是分享经济增长的最安全模式。比如每个月定投。加拿大政府在这方面有着清晰的指引。鼓励大家以这种方式来安排计划自己的退休金和小朋友的教育费用,我经过十年的尝试,确实很有效。中国经济太依赖于行政命令,要不一哄而上,要不回头等政府。反而像宋朝,民国时期这种弱势政府,经济发展很有亮点。无论如何,现在大家都意识的悬崖就在前面,躲是躲不过去的,希望掉下去时摔的不要太惨
现在我们每个人都像走夜路的情况,哼个歌給自己壮胆,互相安慰鼓励,使自己相信我们没走错路。我也是这样,因为走错了很惨。
那么我们作一个模拟。模拟有一个基金是跟沪深300指数同步的。它的价值是沪深300指数的千分之一。即指数是1000的话,它的市值为1.000元。每个月的最后一个交易日我们买入1000.00元。交易费用为0.3%.我们以10年为一个周期。看看结果如何。
Date |
Open |
Close |
Adj Close |
|
|
2015-4-1 |
4123.9 |
4789.15 |
4789.15 |
4.789 |
208.18 |
2015-3-2 |
3601.26 |
4051.2 |
4051.2 |
4.051 |
246.10 |
2015-2-2 |
3353.96 |
3572.84 |
3572.84 |
3.573 |
279.05 |
2015-1-1 |
3533.71 |
3434.39 |
3434.39 |
3.434 |
290.30 |
2014-12-1 |
2819.81 |
3533.71 |
3533.71 |
3.534 |
282.14 |
2014-11-3 |
2512.55 |
2808.82 |
2808.82 |
2.809 |
354.95 |
2014-10-8 |
2478.38 |
2508.32 |
2508.32 |
2.508 |
397.48 |
2014-9-1 |
2355.32 |
2450.99 |
2450.99 |
2.451 |
406.77 |
2014-8-1 |
2329.4 |
2338.29 |
2338.29 |
2.338 |
426.38 |
2014-7-1 |
2164.56 |
2350.25 |
2350.25 |
2.350 |
424.21 |
2014-6-3 |
2149.92 |
2165.12 |
2165.12 |
2.165 |
460.48 |
2014-5-5 |
2156.47 |
2156.46 |
2156.46 |
2.156 |
462.33 |
2014-4-1 |
2163.11 |
2158.66 |
2158.66 |
2.159 |
461.86 |
2014-3-3 |
2190.37 |
2146.3 |
2146.3 |
2.146 |
464.52 |
2014-2-7 |
2212.48 |
2178.97 |
2178.97 |
2.179 |
457.56 |
2014-1-2 |
2321.98 |
2202.45 |
2202.45 |
2.202 |
452.68 |
2013-12-2 |
2418.79 |
2330.03 |
2330.03 |
2.330 |
427.89 |
2013-11-1 |
2384.96 |
2438.94 |
2438.94 |
2.439 |
408.78 |
2013-10-8 |
2441.81 |
2373.72 |
2373.72 |
2.374 |
420.02 |
2013-9-2 |
2320.34 |
2409.04 |
2409.04 |
2.409 |
413.86 |
2013-8-1 |
2245.36 |
2313.91 |
2313.91 |
2.314 |
430.87 |
2013-7-1 |
2213.32 |
2193.02 |
2193.02 |
2.193 |
454.62 |
2013-6-3 |
2602.62 |
2200.64 |
2200.64 |
2.201 |
453.05 |
2013-5-2 |
2449.64 |
2606.43 |
2606.43 |
2.606 |
382.52 |
2013-4-1 |
2493.19 |
2447.31 |
2447.31 |
2.447 |
407.39 |
2013-3-1 |
2668.84 |
2495.08 |
2495.08 |
2.495 |
399.59 |
2013-2-1 |
2743.32 |
2673.33 |
2673.33 |
2.673 |
372.94 |
2013-1-1 |
2522.95 |
2686.88 |
2686.88 |
2.687 |
371.06 |
2012-12-3 |
2108.85 |
2522.95 |
2522.95 |
2.523 |
395.17 |
2012-11-1 |
2297.88 |
2139.66 |
2139.66 |
2.140 |
465.96 |
2012-10-1 |
2293.11 |
2254.82 |
2254.82 |
2.255 |
442.16 |
2012-9-3 |
2228.37 |
2293.11 |
2293.11 |
2.293 |
434.78 |
2012-8-1 |
2358.65 |
2204.87 |
2204.87 |
2.205 |
452.18 |
2012-7-2 |
2465.24 |
2332.92 |
2332.92 |
2.333 |
427.36 |
2012-6-1 |
2633 |
2461.61 |
2461.61 |
2.462 |
405.02 |
2012-5-1 |
2626.16 |
2632.04 |
2632.04 |
2.632 |
378.79 |
2012-4-2 |
2454.9 |
2626.16 |
2626.16 |
2.626 |
379.64 |
2012-3-1 |
2633.34 |
2454.9 |
2454.9 |
2.455 |
406.13 |
2012-2-1 |
2428.99 |
2634.14 |
2634.14 |
2.634 |
378.49 |
2012-1-2 |
2345.74 |
2464.26 |
2464.26 |
2.464 |
404.58 |
2011-12-1 |
2583.61 |
2345.74 |
2345.74 |
2.346 |
425.03 |
2011-11-1 |
2697.53 |
2521.52 |
2521.52 |
2.522 |
395.40 |
2011-10-10 |
2557.08 |
2695.31 |
2695.31 |
2.695 |
369.90 |
2011-9-1 |
2834.53 |
2581.35 |
2581.35 |
2.581 |
386.23 |
2011-8-1 |
2977.07 |
2846.78 |
2846.78 |
2.847 |
350.22 |
2011-7-1 |
3049.75 |
2972.08 |
2972.08 |
2.972 |
335.46 |
2011-6-1 |
3004.17 |
3044.09 |
3044.09 |
3.044 |
327.52 |
2011-5-3 |
3211.13 |
3001.56 |
3001.56 |
3.002 |
332.16 |
2011-4-1 |
3272.73 |
3192.72 |
3192.72 |
3.193 |
312.27 |
2011-3-1 |
3254.89 |
3223.29 |
3223.29 |
3.223 |
309.31 |
2011-2-1 |
3077.28 |
3239.56 |
3239.56 |
3.240 |
307.76 |
2011-1-4 |
3189.68 |
3076.51 |
3076.51 |
3.077 |
324.07 |
2010-12-1 |
3136.02 |
3128.26 |
3128.26 |
3.128 |
318.71 |
2010-11-1 |
3473 |
3136.99 |
3136.99 |
3.137 |
317.82 |
2010-10-8 |
3044.23 |
3379.98 |
3379.98 |
3.380 |
294.97 |
2010-9-1 |
2884.04 |
2935.57 |
2935.57 |
2.936 |
339.63 |
2010-8-2 |
2917.27 |
2903.19 |
2903.19 |
2.903 |
343.42 |
2010-7-1 |
2526.07 |
2868.85 |
2868.85 |
2.869 |
347.53 |
2010-6-1 |
2744.16 |
2563.07 |
2563.07 |
2.563 |
388.99 |
2010-5-4 |
3019.45 |
2773.26 |
2773.26 |
2.773 |
359.50 |
2010-4-1 |
3391.94 |
3067.36 |
3067.36 |
3.067 |
325.04 |
2010-3-1 |
3324.42 |
3345.61 |
3345.61 |
3.346 |
298.00 |
2010-2-1 |
3152.71 |
3281.67 |
3281.67 |
3.282 |
303.81 |
2010-1-4 |
3535.23 |
3204.16 |
3204.16 |
3.204 |
311.16 |
2009-12-1 |
3560.83 |
3575.68 |
3575.68 |
3.576 |
278.83 |
2009-11-2 |
3392.8 |
3511.67 |
3511.67 |
3.512 |
283.91 |
2009-10-1 |
3004.8 |
3280.37 |
3280.37 |
3.280 |
303.93 |
2009-9-1 |
2843.7 |
3004.8 |
3004.8 |
3.005 |
331.80 |
2009-8-3 |
3787.03 |
2830.27 |
2830.27 |
2.830 |
352.26 |
2009-7-1 |
3237.9 |
3734.62 |
3734.62 |
3.735 |
266.96 |
2009-6-1 |
2858.34 |
3166.47 |
3166.47 |
3.166 |
314.86 |
2009-5-1 |
2622.93 |
2759.71 |
2759.71 |
2.760 |
361.27 |
2009-4-1 |
2548.22 |
2622.93 |
2622.93 |
2.623 |
380.11 |
2009-3-2 |
2164.67 |
2507.79 |
2507.79 |
2.508 |
397.56 |
2009-2-2 |
2057.06 |
2140.49 |
2140.49 |
2.140 |
465.78 |
2009-1-5 |
1882.96 |
2032.68 |
2032.68 |
2.033 |
490.49 |
2008-12-1 |
1864.2 |
1817.72 |
1817.72 |
1.818 |
548.49 |
2008-11-3 |
1653.54 |
1829.92 |
1829.92 |
1.830 |
544.83 |
2008-10-6 |
2128.7 |
1663.66 |
1663.66 |
1.664 |
599.28 |
2008-9-1 |
2309.17 |
2243.66 |
2243.66 |
2.244 |
444.36 |
2008-8-1 |
2840.79 |
2391.64 |
2391.64 |
2.392 |
416.87 |
2008-7-1 |
2698.35 |
2805.21 |
2805.21 |
2.805 |
355.41 |
2008-6-2 |
3625.83 |
2791.82 |
2791.82 |
2.792 |
357.11 |
2008-5-1 |
3959.12 |
3611.33 |
3611.33 |
3.611 |
276.08 |
2008-4-1 |
3582.85 |
3959.12 |
3959.12 |
3.959 |
251.82 |
2008-3-3 |
4790.74 |
3790.53 |
3790.53 |
3.791 |
263.02 |
2008-2-1 |
4571.94 |
4674.55 |
4674.55 |
4.675 |
213.28 |
2008-1-1 |
5338.27 |
4620.4 |
4620.4 |
4.620 |
215.78 |
2007-12-3 |
4772.67 |
5338.27 |
5338.27 |
5.338 |
186.76 |
2007-11-1 |
5605.23 |
4737.41 |
4737.41 |
4.737 |
210.45 |
2007-10-1 |
5580.81 |
5688.54 |
5688.54 |
5.689 |
175.26 |
2007-9-3 |
5419.17 |
5580.81 |
5580.81 |
5.581 |
178.65 |
2007-8-1 |
4290.48 |
5296.81 |
5296.81 |
5.297 |
188.23 |
2007-7-2 |
3757.66 |
4460.56 |
4460.56 |
4.461 |
223.51 |
2007-6-1 |
3803.95 |
3764.08 |
3764.08 |
3.764 |
264.87 |
2007-5-8 |
3686.03 |
3927.95 |
3927.95 |
3.928 |
253.82 |
2007-4-2 |
2850.11 |
3558.71 |
3558.71 |
3.559 |
280.16 |
2007-3-1 |
2473.54 |
2781.78 |
2781.78 |
2.782 |
358.40 |
2007-2-1 |
2395.17 |
2544.57 |
2544.57 |
2.545 |
391.81 |
2007-1-4 |
2067.09 |
2385.33 |
2385.33 |
2.385 |
417.97 |
2006-12-1 |
1729.22 |
2041.05 |
2041.05 |
2.041 |
488.47 |
2006-11-1 |
1479.41 |
1714.36 |
1714.36 |
1.714 |
581.56 |
2006-10-9 |
1436.07 |
1464.47 |
1464.47 |
1.464 |
680.79 |
2006-9-1 |
1318.1 |
1403.27 |
1403.27 |
1.403 |
710.48 |
2006-8-1 |
1282.06 |
1338.69 |
1338.69 |
1.339 |
744.76 |
2006-7-3 |
1420.33 |
1294.33 |
1294.33 |
1.294 |
770.28 |
2006-6-1 |
1402.88 |
1393.96 |
1393.96 |
1.394 |
715.23 |
2006-5-8 |
1218.44 |
1365.45 |
1365.45 |
1.365 |
730.16 |
2006-4-3 |
1079.32 |
1172.35 |
1172.35 |
1.172 |
850.43 |
2006-3-1 |
1056.62 |
1061.09 |
1061.09 |
1.061 |
939.60 |
2006-2-6 |
1033.23 |
1053.01 |
1053.01 |
1.053 |
946.81 |
2006-1-4 |
941.428 |
1009.6 |
1009.6 |
1.010 |
987.52 |
2005-12-1 |
873.067 |
923.451 |
923.451 |
0.923 |
1079.65 |
2005-11-1 |
872.865 |
873.825 |
873.825 |
0.874 |
1140.96 |
2005-10-10 |
907.321 |
876.282 |
876.282 |
0.876 |
1137.76 |
2005-9-1 |
944.559 |
917.392 |
917.392 |
0.917 |
1086.78 |
2005-8-1 |
891.607 |
927.916 |
927.916 |
0.928 |
1074.45 |
2005-7-1 |
859.494 |
888.164 |
888.164 |
0.888 |
1122.54 |
2005-6-1 |
837.532 |
878.686 |
878.686 |
0.879 |
1134.65 |
2005-5-9 |
909.174 |
855.946 |
855.946 |
0.856 |
1164.79 |
|
|
|
|
54043.44 |
|
总收益 |
总投入 |
收益率 |
|
|
|
259678.75 |
120000 |
116.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
折合年收益 |
8.03% |
|
10年之中,我们经历了股市6000点的光辉岁月。结果一点也不让我意外。我们总共投资了12万。现在的市值25万9.折合年收益8.03%。一个完美的年收益,几乎和教科书一样标准。需要注意:1、你几乎没有花费任何脑筋,只需要设置好。就可以坐等社会发展带来的收获。2、1000块的月投资可能不会对你的生活产生不良影响。3、持续10年的8%的年收益几乎没有那个基金经理可以做到。让我们开始定投吧!
所有数据来自雅虎财经。https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=000300.SS&a=03&b=8&c=2005&d=04&e=21&f=2015&g=m