一个从来没有卖过股票的投资人的自白

来源: 文学中年 于 2015-04-27 22:10:19 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (17570 bytes)
本帖于 2015-04-27 22:53:28 时间, 由普通用户 文学中年 编辑

够耸人听闻不？From Seeking Alpha, 我知道股市小书生喜欢贴这类的文章，这个人很多人也知道，是个孜孜不倦传播投资福音的大好人。

Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Buyandhold 2012

As a young investor, I wanted to pick the brain of someone who's been there and done that so that I might learn from their experience. Buyandhold 2012 has had a successful investing career that spans over four decades. His strict portfolio management system may not work for everyone, but it is still worthy of consideration. Beating the S&P 500 over the long-haul is an impressive feat. Buyandhold 2012 claims to have done so and he tells you how in this article.

I've made a commitment to my readers that I will only write about stocks that I own, or plan on owning in the near future if my buy target price is hit. I think this is important, having some skin in the game. I am not a professional in the financial industry (I grow grapes and manage a vineyard for a living). I write about my portfolio management decisions with the hope that others might learn from my success and/or mistakes. Because of this commitment, I've had a hard time finding subjects to write about as of late; the last noteworthy purchase I made outside of regular monthly re-investments was the ? position in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) that I bought on March 25th. With the market hovering near all-time highs I'm having a hard time finding the value that I typically like to take advantage of with my purchases. I have my target list of stocks to buy and I am monitoring them on a daily basis, but for the last month or so, I've been forced to sit back patiently, and bid my time waiting for weakness.

That said, just because I don't have a lot of action going on, doesn't mean I'm lazily sitting on my hands. During these down periods of time, I'm focused on trying to improve my craft. I take pride in my portfolio management and take marked steps to increase my market related knowledge on a daily basis. As a young investor, especially being one without a formal financial education, I think this is incredibly important.

The old saying goes, "it takes a village to raise a child." This is an old-fashioned notion, these days we've lessened the importance of a sense of community in our larger society. This is why I enjoy Seeking Alpha so much, the collective knowledge that is brought together in the different sections of this site can be very helpful for someone looking to learn about investing. There are a wide variety of viewpoints available to mull over and ultimately form your own. Over time, I've found the core group of contributors whose work really speaks to me. I have a high respect for these men and women and on "boring" market days I find myself looking back through their archives, reading and learning from their past pieces.

But, the community that has developed and thrives here on Seeking Alpha doesn't stop with the contributors. Oftentimes I find the comment sections of articles to be more interesting and educational than the original published pieces themselves. This isn't a slight at the authors that post here, but rather a compliment to the intellectual viewership that this site fosters.

Because of this, I wanted to take the time and pursue an interview with an avid commenter in the dividend and income related sections that I frequent. This man's presence is constant on pieces written about traditional dividend growth aristocrats, and the only thing more reliable than his willingness to partake in post-article conversations is the message that he delivers, again and again. Whether or not you agree with what this man has to say, you have to respect the discipline that he's shown towards the dedication to his ideals. Personally, I don't always agree with what he has to say, but that is neither here nor there. From all accounts, the success that he's experienced throughout his long investing career would be envied by most and admired by all. As a young investor, these are the types of mentors that I seek and love to learn from.

So, without any further adieu, I present to you a Q&A session that I recently had with Seeking Alpha member: Buyandhold 2012.

You have made nearly 2,800 comments here on Seeking Alpha articles, I haven't read them all, but the many that I have read have all been very similar. You have become a vocal champion for buy and hold investing, in the most literal sense, living up to your namesake here on SA. So, I think it only makes sense to break the ice in this fashion: is it true that you have never sold a single share of stock?

Yes, I have never sold even one single share of stock in 45 years except on the rare occasion when one of my stocks was bought out for cash.

For example, Hospira, a stock that was spun off from Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT) is being bought out by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) for $90 a share. I have no choice but to take the cash since Pfizer is not offering shares of stock in exchange.

Over the long term, the stock market tends to go up so I see no reason to ever sell. Also, if you sell a high quality dividend growth stock such as Abbott Labs or Philip Morris (NYSE:PM), you are not allowing the miracle of compounding to occur over the long term. It is the miracle of long-term compounding which can turn a small investment into a substantial amount of money.

Another reason that I never sell is that I don't like to pay capital gains taxes.

Today, we live in a world where instant gratification is expected, making patience an old-fashioned ideal. I'd love to hear about your start in the investing world, and specifically, how you became so dedicated to a hard lined, buy and hold strategy at such a young age. When did you get started investing and who/what were early influences on your investing mindset?

I thought it would be foolish to try to reinvent the wheel. So I decided to imitate successful investors. I had a relative who was richer than Fort Knox. I found out that the reason he had gotten to be so wealthy is that he began to buy stocks in 1930 and then never sold any of them. Something clicked in my 14-year-old brain. Buy the right stocks. Never sell them. Get rich.

Another major influence on me was my mother who was a public school teacher with good instincts about investing. She believed in buying high quality dividend growth stocks whenever they were extremely cheap and then never selling them. In 1974, when the stock market crashed, she was investing every penny she had in the stock market.

As the years have passed, have these major influences changed?

Later in life, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger had a big influence on me. Both of those men have a clear understanding of investments.

Have you always managed your own portfolio? What are your feelings regarding individual investors and financial advisors? What, in your opinion, are the best market related educational resources for young investors today looking to get their own start managing their portfolios?

Back in 1970, when I began investing in the stock market, I would telephone my stockbroker and ask him what he thought I should buy. If I agreed with his recommendation, I would buy the stock and have the stock certificate mailed to me. I would then put the certificate in the safe deposit box at the bank.

Today I use Scottrade. I receive a Direct Registration statement. I then contact the transfer agent and have a stock certificate sent to me if one is available. Some companies no longer issue stock certificates.

I have always done my own research. I used to do a lot of research in Standard & Poor's. Today I read Value Line and Yahoo Finance.

My feeling about financial advisors? I used to have a very low opinion of financial advisors since a few of them have attempted to sell me toxic investments such as variable annuities. But since I have been on Seeking Alpha, a few financial advisors have contacted me for whom I have a great deal of respect. These advisors put the needs of the client ahead of their own needs and have some excellent ideas about investing.

Looking back, do you consider your strict buy and hold strategy to have been a success? How do you gauge your success? Has this commitment towards buy and hold investing allowed for you to meet your financial goals?

My buy and hold strategy has more than compensated for other financial mistakes that I have made. I compare my long-term performance to the performance of the S&P 500. If I have outperformed the S&P 500 over the long term, which I have, then I have succeeded.

No one hits 1.000 in the markets, I imagine that having never sold a stock you've held onto a very disappointing position or two. I think that oftentimes investors can learn more from their mistakes than their successes. Is my assumption correct regarding disappointing positions? Have you ever held a company all the way to bankruptcy? If so, do you have any regrets, or is this a situation where an individual player isn't bigger than the game (your buy and hold principles)?

In my younger days when I didn't know any better, I had the bad habit of chasing highflying momentum stocks. One of those stocks was Avantek. I invested $16,000. The value quickly rose to $500,000. And then the company went bankrupt.

But it is a mistake to assume that only highflying momentum stocks can go bankrupt. I was a shareholder of Borden, an extremely conservative food stock. I held on to that stock for many years thinking that it was safe and conservative. Then the company went bankrupt.

But I do not believe in crying over spilled milk. The money that I made over the years in the stocks that I never sold, particularly Philip Morris, Abbott Labs, and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), more than compensated for all of the other mistakes that I have made in my years of stock market investing.

Throughout my young investing career, I've been warned on several occasions, "to never become married to a stock." Having never sold a share, it seems as if you are happy to get hitched to the companies you own. What is your rebuttal to those who argue that there is no such thing as a "buy and hold" investment and that regular monitoring is a necessary component of quality portfolio management?

I have been a hardcore buy and hold dividend growth stock investor for 45 years. My portfolio has increased in value exponentially over the years. I now receive more money in dividends each year than I originally invested.

Buying and monitoring is encouraged by many in the financial community in order to justify their fees. They seem to have a vested interest in making successful investing more complicated than it really is. If you own the right stocks, Dividend Aristocrats and other stocks that tend to do well over the long term, there is no need to monitor them. Just buy this type of stock whenever it is relatively cheap, stick the stock certificate in a safe deposit box at the bank, and happily collect dividends for the remainder of your life.

We've talked a fair bit about your mindset when it comes to selling shares, but that is only one half of the story. What is the process you go through when making a purchase?

I have a list of stocks in mind that I may want to purchase at some future date. Right now that list of stocks includes: Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), McKesson (NYSE:MCK), Stryker (NYSE:SYK), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:JAZZ), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB), Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), Philip Morris, Exxon Mobil and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

A common theme discussed here on Seeking Alpha with regard to portfolio management in the importance on having a "business plan" - do you have one of these, a set of rules or guidelines that shape your investments?

There are a few rules that I follow.

1) I never initiate a new position in a stock with a P/E ratio higher than 20.
2) I prefer to initiate new positions in stocks whenever the S&P 500 is 20% to 50% lower than its all time high.

Those two rules lower the probability that I will over pay.

Do you only purchase dividend-paying stocks? I prefer dividend-paying stocks. Since I never sell, I need some form of compensation for owning the stocks for decades. How do you go about re-investing your dividends?

I have never automatically reinvested dividends. I accumulate dividends in the bank and then wait for the right opportunity to buy stocks that interest me. I am very focused on buying stocks whenever they are relatively cheap.

What are your feelings towards dollar cost averaging? Market timing? How can a disciplined, patient investor "beat" the market, achieving outsized returns (even if they are unrealized)?

I strongly believe in buying more shares of the stocks in your portfolio whenever there is a major stock market correction.

I have been a GE shareholder for decades. During the financial crisis, I loaded up on more shares of GE at prices ranging from 8 to 12.

If you own the right stocks, it only makes sense to buy more shares if they fall substantially in price.

Market timing? That is a double-edged sword. I am obviously not a market timer on the sell side since I never sell. But I am a market timer on the buy side. I make an effort to only buy stocks whenever they are relatively cheap and that generally means during major stock market corrections.

Index funds seem to be all of the rage lately, with Warren Buffett even recommending that individual investors put their money in a low cost S&P 500 tracking index for the long term. What are your feelings with regard to individual stock vs. index fund ownership?

A skillful investor has a better chance to make more money over the long term with individual stocks rather than index funds. However, if an investor does not have the time or the skill to manage his own portfolio of common stocks, then I would recommend an ETF that has the lowest fees possible, one that mirrors the broader market.

Do you have target asset allocations for your portfolio? Do you worry when a position becomes out-sized?

I believe in diversification to lower investment risk. Obviously, an investor does not want to have only two stocks in his portfolio, Polaroid and Enron.

There are 36 stocks in my portfolio. 20 to 50 stocks seems to me to be the ideal portfolio size.

I do not worry when a position becomes out-sized. I never sell under any circumstances. Exxon Mobil is now roughly 19% of my portfolio. Altria (NYSE:MO), Philip Morris, Abbott Labs and AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) are roughly 31% of the portfolio.

One of the most important lessons that I have learned in my 45 years of investing in the stock market is: Do not sell your winners. Allow your winners to ride. The conventional investment advice about rotation and rebalancing is a load of nonsense. Investors get rich over the long term by allowing their winners to ride.

In closing, I'd like to simply ask if you'd care to offer any words of wisdom to young investors like myself? You've obviously done well for yourself and even though your hard lined philosophy can be divisive to some, I think investors, especially those in my generation, would be silly to be unwilling to soak up knowledge from someone who has been doing this for as long as yourself. Thank you very much for your time Sir, this has been a pleasure.

You are so lucky to be young. Time is the best friend of any investor. An investment of $50,000 in the stock market can turn into a portfolio worth 5 million dollars or more over a 40 or 50-year period of time.

Buy stocks that tend to increase in value over the long term, stocks such as the Dividend Aristocrats and the Dividend Champions. Buy these stocks whenever they are relatively cheap. Never sell them. When you retire, you will be amazed by how much your portfolio has gone up in value over time.

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