1. 利率水平超低, 以下是2000年至今的利率趋势
2.公司盈利状况不但改善。以下是最近几家有代表性公司的ER
预期 实际 上年同期
pep 2014-10-09 93.57 1.29 1.36 1.24
aa 2014-10-08 16.07 0.23 0.31 0.11
cost 2014-10-08 128.73 1.52 1.58 1.40
fdx 2014-09-17 159.71 1.96 2.10 1.53
nke 2014-09-25 79.75 0.88 1.09 0.86
3.通胀压力小
4.美国岩页油气革命将保证美国长期繁荣
最近多空分歧大,无须预测一两天的大市。市场会有调整,但在利率上升之前,我还是看好大市。
我对大势的个人看法(大市无常,仅供参考)
所有跟帖:
• 赞! -wtc2018- ♂ (42 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 20:47:21
• 顶! -auser- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 20:50:16
• 这次可能要见证历史了! -indexguy- ♂ (351 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 21:07:42
• shale gas is a lie, if you dig deeper about the data -IAM3Down4Up- ♂ (78 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 21:34:20
• Wall Street Journal: U.S. Is Overtaking Russia as Largest Oil-an -tmp001- ♀ (111 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 21:54:52
• I do not read WSJ, nor watch CNBC, -IAM3Down4Up- ♂ (134 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:01:48
• 现在的焦点是 QE 要结束了! -TZAFAZ- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 21:42:28
• QE结束股市会有波动,但公司盈利在增加,利率还未进入上升期,难道还有更好的投资吗? -tmp001- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:01:30
• 有!the resource sector which were depressed and extremely -IAM3Down4Up- ♂ (62 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:06:23
• Both are not in turning point -tmp001- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:09:14
• LOW利率 did take effect on economy recovery during past five years -财富001- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 21:45:50
• 如何继续呢?日本,欧洲比低利率还低,负的 -IAM3Down4Up- ♂ (182 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 21:50:37
• 你说的对,这就是capitalist. -tmp001- ♀ (111 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:08:22
• 我其实不做单向操作。市场牛熊分歧,各有各的理由,我注重数据。 -tmp001- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:17:12
• when asset bubble bursts, it will be steep, swift and likely -IAM3Down4Up- ♂ (243 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:17:50
• There are always great number of short traders in the market. I -tmp001- ♀ (104 bytes) () 10/11/2014 postreply 22:28:58
• Well said. Thank you. -WangLung- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/12/2014 postreply 07:13:19
• 别忘了股市总是领先实体经济半年。你的这个只能说今天,不能说明明天 -xyz100- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/12/2014 postreply 10:41:58