General market trend and index stocks

1) MSFT and INTC account for 12.50% of dji30, 17.78% of naz and 4.00% of sp500.

2) the top 22 dji30 stocks
Symbol Outstanding Price InstHeld InsdHeld TotalHeld Weight
GE 10570.00M $35.94 56.00 % 0.19 % 56.19 % 10.37 %
XOM 6220.00M $59.87 53.10 % 0.14 % 53.24 % 10.16 %
MSFT 10640.00M $27.92 55.60 % 11.65 % 67.25 % 8.11 %
C 5060.00M $49.34 66.00 % 0.91 % 66.91 % 6.81 %

WMT 4160.00M $50.57 37.10 % 0.69 % 37.79 % 5.74 %
JNJ 2970.00M $61.67 65.60 % 0.04 % 65.64 % 5.00 %
AIG 2600.00M $69.07 63.20 % 17.41 % 80.61 % 4.90 %
INTC 6030.00M $26.64 57.00 % 3.32 % 60.32 % 4.38 %
PFE 7370.00M $21.64 62.20 % 0.11 % 62.31 % 4.35 %
MO 2080.00M $73.41 73.30 % 0.34 % 73.64 % 4.17 %
IBM 1580.00M $88.80 56.00 % 8.09 % 64.09 % 3.83 %
PG 2380.00M $57.01 59.10 % 3.48 % 62.58 % 3.70 %
JPM 3500.00M $38.78 64.80 % 0.67 % 65.47 % 3.70 %

KO 2380.00M $42.65 60.40 % 9.84 % 70.24 % 2.77 %
HD 2140.00M $42.50 63.80 % 1.17 % 64.97 % 2.48 %
VZ 2760.00M $31.85 56.70 % 0.09 % 56.79 % 2.40 %
HPQ 2860.00M $29.38 70.00 % 0.09 % 70.09 % 2.29 %

MRK 2190.00M $30.81 62.60 % 0.08 % 62.68 % 1.84 %
AXP 1240.00M $52.40 78.80 % 0.39 % 79.19 % 1.77 %
MMM 759.93M $78.13 70.50 % 8.26 % 78.76 % 1.62 %
BA 807.27M $69.44 67.40 % 1.56 % 68.96 % 1.53 %
UTX 1020.00M $54.40 81.10 % 12.07 % 93.17 % 1.51 %

account for 93.16% of dji30 and 29.90% of sp500. That means, 20 of them excluding
INTC and MSFT account for 25.90% of sp500.

3) the top 11 naz stocks
Symbol Outstanding Price InstHeld InsdHeld TotalHeld Weight
MSFT 10640.00M $27.92 55.60 % 11.65 % 67.25 % 15.38 %
INTC 6030.00M $26.64 57.00 % 3.32 % 60.32 % 8.32 %
CSCO 6270.00M $17.44 60.90 % 2.33 % 63.23 % 5.66 %
AMGN 1230.00M $82.82 69.60 % 0.28 % 69.88 % 5.27 %

QCOM 1640.00M $46.01 69.30 % 2.19 % 71.49 % 3.91 %
DELL 2400.00M $30.31 65.50 % 9.85 % 75.35 % 3.77 %
ORCL 5150.00M $12.64 46.20 % 23.53 % 69.73 % 3.37 %
EBAY 1390.00M $46.64 62.40 % 17.66 % 80.06 % 3.36 %
YHOO 1420.00M $42.50 72.30 % 10.94 % 83.24 % 3.12 %
CMCSA 2170.00M $27.22 0.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 % 3.06 %
AAPL 829.83M $67.11 73.20 % 1.25 % 74.45 % 2.88 %

AMAT 1620.00M $17.95 67.90 % 0.53 % 68.43 % 1.51 %
TEVA 616.70M $41.73 51.70 % 8.36 % 60.06 % 1.33 %
GILD 457.92M $53.79 86.60 % 0.45 % 87.05 % 1.28 %
SBUX 768.47M $31.75 69.00 % 2.13 % 71.13 % 1.26 %
COST 472.10M $50.56 77.40 % 1.22 % 78.62 % 1.24 %
SHLD 164.85M $121.17 69.00 % 0.00 % 69.00 % 1.03 %
AMZN 414.47M $48.24 66.60 % 25.53 % 92.13 % 1.04 %
GENZ 258.23M $75.15 88.50 % 0.34 % 88.84 % 1.00 %
SYMC 1080.00M $17.70 90.20 % 0.19 % 90.39 % 0.99 %
ERTS 300.58M $59.02 96.90 % 1.16 % 98.06 % 0.92 %
SPLS 731.39M $23.43 86.00 % 0.80 % 86.80 % 0.89 %
ADBE 494.13M $33.86 84.10 % 0.71 % 84.81 % 0.87 %
PAYX 378.99M $43.18 62.00 % 11.59 % 73.59 % 0.85 %
BRCM 344.28M $47.49 65.50 % 16.16 % 81.66 % 0.85 %
MRVL 283.37M $55.74 72.60 % 0.00 % 72.60 % 0.82 %
BIIB 339.41M $44.83 76.30 % 0.39 % 76.69 % 0.79 %
JNPR 564.74M $24.07 73.30 % 9.02 % 82.32 % 0.70 %
SUNW 3410.00M $3.92 51.30 % 2.05 % 53.35 % 0.69 %

BBBY 296.86M $43.08 84.60 % 3.82 % 88.42 % 0.66 %
RIMM 191.08M $66.28 68.10 % 14.79 % 82.89 % 0.66 %
APOL 176.39M $71.66 83.40 % 19.78 % 103.18 % 0.65 %

account for 43.5% of naz and 9.8% of sp500. That means, 9 of them excluding
INTC and MSFT acount for 5.8% of sp500.

The top second top 21 naz stocks account for 14.5% of naz and it leads the top naz32
stocks to 58.00% of naz.

Conclusion:

1) There is almost no correlation between dji30 and naz.
2) Top 22/20 dji30 stocks has 30%/26% impact on sp500.
3) Top 11/32/100 naz stocks has 43.5%/58.00%/75.00% impacts of naz. So the top
11 and the second top 21 stocks have sigificant impacts on naz. In addition, the top
11/32 naz stocks have 9.8%/12.57% of impact on sp500. Excluding MSFT and INTC,
the top 9/30 naz stocks have only 5.8%/8.57% impacts on naz. So there is no significant
correlation between naz and sp500.
4) sp500 index is the best index to reflect the whole maket activity. Naz index, however,
is an independent index in addition to sp500. That means 82% of naz (excluding MSFT
and INTC) may have up to 17% impact of sp500. The way to compute is:

1) All the rest of naz (excluding top 32) accout for 42% of naz (100%-58%)
2) Suppose they have all the same impact against sp500. Top 30 account for 40%
(58.00% - 17.78%) of naz and 8.57% of sp500. So the rest 42% of naz is almost another
8.57% of sp500 which adds to about 17% (8.57% * 2).

And total Naz has a 21% (17% + 4%) impact of sp500, so almost independent.

5) Top20 dji stocks and top 30 naz stocks account for 34.47% of sp500 (25.90% + 8.57%).
If MSFT and INTC are added, the 52 stocks account for 38.50% of sp500, 58% of naz and
93.16% of dji. This is very significant.

Trading guideline:

If most of these 52 stocks are on history high, the market may be going down. If some of them
are on history low or still have the potential to go up comparing to 6 months high, the market
may go higher.

The basic theory is that fundamental analysis doesn't have big change and significant general
market trend is performed by MMs' playing heaviely weighted index component stocks.

Note that these heaviely weighted index component stocks may go up/consolidate/go down
sector by sector, so the market indice can be manipulated as wanted. And big MMs' trades,
either accumation or diversified distribulation, can be concealed from retail investors and small
or medium-sized institutions.

If you want to talk about this, please send email to [e-mail].

所有跟帖： 

• Several mistakes -__nobody- ♂ (562 bytes) () 11/24/2005 postreply 21:59:51

• 回复：Several mistakes -131105- ♀ (2462 bytes) () 11/24/2005 postreply 22:52:51

• Thanks both 131105 and _nobody, your are both HH -6783- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/25/2005 postreply 03:48:38

• Can't agree more on MMs manipulate indice. -6783- ♀ (436 bytes) () 11/25/2005 postreply 04:02:11

• 回复：回复：Several mistakes -__nobody- ♂ (541 bytes) () 11/25/2005 postreply 07:33:41

• give a big hand to you,thanks -6741- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/25/2005 postreply 01:32:30

• 回复：General market trend and index stocks -6783- ♀ (148 bytes) () 11/25/2005 postreply 03:40:59

• MMs sometimes also manipulate volume. -6783- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/25/2005 postreply 04:23:37