April 15, 2014, 10:06 a.m. EDT
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Greece’s return to the bond market last week marks a major milestone in the country’s recovery from its debt crisis.
Even its stock market has been surprisingly strong. Since its inception in December 2011, for example, an ETF benchmarked to the Greek stock market — the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF GREK -3.79% — has outperformed the U.S. stock market. That’s impressive, since the U.S. market has itself been an outperformer.
To be sure, it would be folly to declare the Greek debt crisis to be over. But it is not too early to draw some important investment lessons.
Perhaps the most surprising is that stock market strength in the face of sovereign debt crises is the norm, not the exception. Consider the stock market’s performance following the four sovereign debt crises that preceded Greece’s. These four were, by my count:
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The 1994 Mexican peso devaluation and associated crisis
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The Thai government debt crisis 1997, which led to the phrase “Asian contagion”
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The 1998 Russian ruble devaluation in August 1998, which led — among other things — to the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management