Many people are surprised by the ATACMS’ performance in Ukraine due to underestimations of its capabilities, misconceptions about its relevance in modern warfare, and the operational context in which it has been deployed. Here’s why:
1. Misunderstanding the System’s Capabilities
• Underestimated Range and Precision: ATACMS’ range (up to 300 km) and precision often go underappreciated. Its ability to deliver pinpoint strikes deep into enemy territory was not widely recognized by those unfamiliar with its operational history.
• Cluster Munition Effectiveness: The use of cluster warheads, particularly against airfields and logistical hubs, has showcased a level of lethality that many did not anticipate. The effectiveness of submunitions in disabling helicopters, jets, and equipment in a single strike surprised observers.
2. Quasi-Ballistic Maneuverability
• Many assumed ATACMS to be a simple ballistic missile, making it vulnerable to modern air defenses. However, its quasi-ballistic trajectory and ability to adjust in-flight make it much harder to intercept, even against systems like Russia’s S-400. This aspect was overlooked by those unfamiliar with the missile’s technical nuances.
3. Strategic Surprise
• Secrecy of Deployment: The delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine was kept secret until its first operational use. This surprise caught many analysts and Russian forces off guard, amplifying the perceived impact of the system.
• Unexpected Targets: Strikes on key Russian airfields and logistical nodes demonstrated the missile’s strategic value, which many had not fully considered.
4. Overestimation of Russian Air Defenses
• Observers assumed Russian air defenses could intercept ATACMS effectively, but the missile’s success highlighted gaps in Russia’s layered air defense systems, particularly against advanced and maneuverable systems like ATACMS.
5. Synergy with Ukrainian Strategy
• Real-Time Targeting: Ukraine’s effective integration of Western intelligence and targeting data has maximized ATACMS’ potential, something not all analysts anticipated.
• Disruption of Russian Operations: Strikes against critical logistical hubs, airbases, and command centers revealed how well Ukraine could use ATACMS to disrupt Russian operations. This level of impact surprised many.
6. Historical Bias
• Limited Use in Past Conflicts: ATACMS had been used sparingly in previous conflicts, often against insurgent or low-tech adversaries. Its performance against a near-peer adversary like Russia, with sophisticated air defenses, exceeded expectations.
• Assumptions of Obsolescence: Some viewed ATACMS as an older weapon system potentially less effective in modern, contested environments.
7. Psychological and Strategic Impact
• Shock from Deep Strikes: The ability to hit targets deep in Russian-controlled territory challenged assumptions about the battlefield’s geography and Ukraine’s reach, causing a reassessment of ATACMS’ strategic role.
• High-Profile Damage: Strikes on airbases with visible destruction of helicopters and aircraft delivered a psychological shock to both Russian forces and outside observers.
In essence, the surprise stems from a mix of underestimating ATACMS’ advanced features, overestimating Russian defenses, and failing to predict how effectively Ukraine would integrate the missile into its broader strategy. Its success has redefined expectations for older yet highly capable systems in modern warfare.
