Current URPD charts:
https://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_realized_price.html
Based on the Bitcoin URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data for early February 2026, the market is currently in a "defensive" phase characterized by significant overhead resistance and a hunt for stable support.
The URPD chart at bgeometrics (and similar on-chain providers) provides a "cost-basis map" that reveals the following for the near term:
1. Significant Supply Overhang (Resistance)
• The "Wall" at $80k–$85k: There is a heavy concentration of coins that moved between $84,000 and $94,000. Because the current price is below these levels, these holders are "underwater."
• Near-Term Friction: Any rally toward $77,000 – $80,000 is likely to face heavy selling pressure (the "break-even effect"), where investors who bought at the highs look to exit without a loss.
2. The "Supply Gap" and Downside Risk
• Thin Support: Analysts have identified a "supply gap" between $70,000 and $80,000. On a URPD chart, this appears as shorter bars, meaning fewer coins were transacted in this range.
• Price Magnetism: When price enters a "thin" URPD zone, it tends to move quickly because there are fewer "buy walls" to stop the fall. This explains the recent volatility and the risk of a "drift" down toward the next high-volume cluster.
3. Key Support Clusters (The "Floor")
If the price continues to soften, the URPD points to two major areas where buyers are historically concentrated:
• $66,900 – $70,600: This is the immediate high-density cluster. On the chart, you will see much taller bars here, indicating a strong "consensus" price where many investors are willing to defend their positions.
• $63,100: This is widely considered the "critical risk zone." A breakdown below this level would signal a shift from a "healthy correction" to a more structural bear trend.
4. Macro "Floor" Metrics
While not strictly URPD, the "Realized Price" (the average cost basis for the entire network) is currently near $56,000, with the 200-week moving average around $58,000. Historically, these levels act as the ultimate "generational" support during deep corrections.
Summary for the Near Term:
• Bearish/Neutral Bias: The URPD shows more "pain" (underwater supply) above the current price than "support" immediately below it.
• Decision Point: Bitcoin is looking for a bottom. If it fails to hold the $70k cluster, the URPD suggests a fast move toward $63k.
• Recovery Signal: A sustainable recovery only begins once Bitcoin can clear the supply clusters at $84,000, turning those underwater holders back into profitable ones who are less likely to sell.
