Industrial metals (blue) like copper and materials sector (white) are starting the year strong, yet over 5 years meaningfully lag S&P 500 (red). Cyclical plays like these are well positioned this year in a world shaped by supply:
they sit at the intersection of 3 out of our 5 mega forces: AI build out, think data centre construction and chips; geopolitics fragmentation, think defense spending, infrastructure build and rewiring supply chains; and energy transition, think grid and infra upgrades and renewable projects. They all need industrial metals and materials: sharply increasing demand meets more rigid supply.
macro tailwinds including rate cuts and growth holding up.
