Figure 1 illustrates the historical trend in US naphtha exports to Venezuela. Naphtha serves as a critical diluent, blended with Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude oil (from the Orinoco Belt) to reduce its viscosity, enabling it to flow through pipelines and be exported effectively.
US sanctions imposed in recent years (particularly intensified since 2019 on PDVSA, with further escalations in late 2025) effectively halted these direct naphtha exports from the United States. As a result, Venezuela shifted its naphtha imports primarily to Russia (and previously to Iran), using “shadow fleet” tankers to evade restrictions—though these supplies faced increasing disruptions due to US enforcement actions, including blockades on sanctioned vessels.
The key question now, amid President Trump’s recent actions—including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, selective rollback of certain sanctions, and plans to boost Venezuelan crude production through US company investment—is this: How much could US shale producers benefit from resuming and potentially expanding naphtha exports to Venezuela?
Summery:正面有限的影响。
