About NVDA/AVGO/ORCL again

本帖于 2025-12-13 13:57:48 时间, 由版主 三心三意 编辑

Since so many posts about these 3 companies recently, just want to summarize my thoughts

1: NVDA is the best buy amognest these 3 at current price. Market can go up and down, and NVDA could even go as low as 140-150 if we see a big correction on Nasdaq, but I see NVDA firmly above 220+ in H1 of 2026. Right now, NVDA is traded at 25 forward PE

2: AVGO is also a solid buy but carries a high premium. After yesterday's crash, AVGO now stands at 35 forward PE. Considering its 47% EPS growth in 2026 and another 40% in 2027, 35 PE is not unreasoanble but still elevated. I think the floor for AVGO could be 270-310 in the worst case if we see a large Nasdaq correction. However, this is easily a 400+ stock before end of 2026, and may even stretch into 500.

3: ORCL is a tricky one. If you look at its EPS projection, it is backloaded into 2028-2029 (with growth rate above 35%). But for next 2 years, in 2026 and 2027, street has lowered the expectation and now only expects 20% growth. Coupled with uncertainty of high debt, patience is required to buy into Oracle and average price entry point need to be carefully managed. 

  With forward EPS estimate of $7.26, ORCL could go as low as $140 (for a PE of 20) if Nasdaq sells off. Right now at 189, it is priced at 26 PE. But as long as ORCL continues to meet EPS targets, we should see ORCL to go back to 220-250 range in 2026. As said above, paitence is required as it may take until 2027 to see explosive share price movement

所有跟帖: 

谢谢 -Kezuroukai- 给 Kezuroukai 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 13:52:37

TY! FA+TA+Risk Management... -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:07:34

AVGO支撑位,观点大致相同, 参考帖内的图 -dindindon- 给 dindindon 发送悄悄话 dindindon 的博客首页 (81 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:09:15

Above is just a simple EPS analysis, a rough range -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (86 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:11:01

是的, I wouldn't buy the first red candle. -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:12:02

谢分享 -半亩园- 给 半亩园 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:21:53

是的。 我觉得Orcl 132左右是个强支撑,但是大机会到不了。 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 15:36:50

Bog,不要132啊。。。要不贫下中农很久不得翻身了。哈哈 -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 15:49:21

三心文章中提到140, 我觉得跟TA的强支撑132接近, 但大概率到不了 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 15:52:29

抱歉,Bog。是我粗心失言了 :-) -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:05:12

没有,我是觉得跌那么多的概率低。 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:08:02

真到了我岂不偷鸡不成反蚀把米 -dancingpig- 给 dancingpig 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:11:24

:-p -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 18:08:52

请教三心对这几个股票有操作吗? 特别是ORCL, 在考虑是不是需要从ORCL换到NVDA -hvhp- 给 hvhp 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:03:59

具体的策略要自己做,做整体计划, 根据自己的仓位%和风险承受能力去决定。 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:22:41

比如说我前一阵子把AVGO调仓一部分去NVDA,那我现在去加AVGO不代表我更看好它 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:24:28

再比如说如果我现在买ORCL是因为我的cost低,容错率可以高一点,但这并不代表这就是最低点 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:26:41

However, 有一点我可以肯定的说,这3只股票如果不小心跌到我这里提到的低位,我会毫不犹豫的大力再加仓 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:29:26

谢谢三心,收益匪浅 -othershore- 给 othershore 发送悄悄话 othershore 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/14/2025 postreply 06:35:05

谢谢! -文心兰1- 给 文心兰1 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:41:53

感谢三心! -NewLeaf2021- 给 NewLeaf2021 发送悄悄话 NewLeaf2021 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:43:38

完全同意! 谢谢分享! -*江南雨*- 给 *江南雨* 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 19:38:50

谢三心同学。如果 NVDA / ORCL 跌倒好价位,我会加仓 NVDA, 建仓 ORCL。 -薄利多收- 给 薄利多收 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 20:28:53

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