However, I agree with you on one point, due to

(1) massive CapEx with uncertain ROI, (2) accounting vs. economic depreciation gaps (linear costs vs. obsolescence-driven losses), and (3) demand volatility (hype to oversupply), firms like ORCL, CoreWeave, and Salesforce bear far higher risks than upstream or downstream infrastructure players gaining from upgrades without ownership burdens.

 

总结一下：我不觉得5-6年的accounting depreciation 如大多数人认为是理所当然的，因为真正的economic depreciation gaps 确实是1-2年。但我同意薄少帅说的，算力输出公司是AI投资中风险最大的。

所有跟帖： 

• 重弹老调，great minds think alike。：）晓炎写的更专业， 更有文采。 -薄利多收- ♂ (63 bytes) () 11/29/2025 postreply 19:02:24

• lol 你意思说你写的都是内涵，而我的花里胡哨？ -晓炎- ♀ (436 bytes) () 11/29/2025 postreply 19:04:42

• 哈哈。 有时间不去做做功课， 挣点糙米？ 我还在努力中。 -薄利多收- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/29/2025 postreply 19:54:41

• I don't know you're a slave driver, it's my last day of -晓炎- ♀ (280 bytes) () 11/29/2025 postreply 20:51:36

• my bad. Enjoy the vacation. :) Maybe I said too late. -薄利多收- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/29/2025 postreply 22:09:31

• 重来都不会太晚LOL 一直说欠了你很多碗糙米，这篇“度假”文可以值几碗吗？—- -晓炎- ♀ (9164 bytes) () 11/30/2025 postreply 05:09:29

• 这篇是一篇触及灵魂的文字，很哲学，很诗人，文字非常优美，让人欲罢不能，才女 -marilyn- ♀ (641 bytes) () 11/30/2025 postreply 06:35:32

• 早，我终于“颠沛流离”了1.5天回到了我的出发地LOL 谢谢你喜欢这篇文章， -晓炎- ♀ (359 bytes) () 11/30/2025 postreply 07:44:17

• 我也最喜欢这一篇 -bogbog- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/30/2025 postreply 18:26:26

• 晓炎文采飞扬，文笔触及灵魂最柔软之处。中英文无缝对接，也只有糙米可与之相匹配。 ：） -薄利多收- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/30/2025 postreply 08:18:33

• 你就使坏吧你LOL，好吧，cheers for our 糙米！ -晓炎- ♀ (167 bytes) () 11/30/2025 postreply 09:13:44