Circle Internet Stock Could Rise 17%, Says Analyst. Stablecoins Are Set to Explode.
J.P. Morgan analyst Kenneth Worthington upgraded Circle Internet Group stock to Overwe
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Circle’s third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with on-platform USDC growing from $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $9.1 billion in the most recent quarter.
Circle, known for its USDC stablecoin, generates revenue from interest on assets backing USDC.
While Circle Internet Group
stock has fallen from the heights it reached following its buzzy public trading debut in June, one analyst believes the shares can claw their way higher.J.P. Morgan analyst Kenneth Worthington double-upgraded the stock to Overweight from Underweight on Thursday. He moved his target for the share price to $100, from $94. Shares were down 0.9% at $85.58, suggesting a nearly 17% gain to reach $100.
Circle is best known as the issuer of USDC, one of the largest stablecoins by market capitalization. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to a commodity or fiat currency—in this case, the U.S. dollar—to maintain a steady price.
Shares began to trade on the New York Stock Exchange on June 6. Later that month, the stock notched a record close of $263.45 on June 23, though it traded as high as $298.99 during the session.
While the hype has certainly died down since then, Circle’s “solid” third-quarter earnings were an encouraging sign. Key metrics exceeded expectations, Worthington wrote.
Beyond the numbers, the latest earnings carry a message, the analyst said. “The quarterly results indicate to us that stablecoins are continuing to make their way into mainstream financial services, with USDC a leading stablecoin and Circle a leading partner,” he wrote.
A notable highlight was the increase in so-called on-platform USDC for Circle, which grew from an average level of $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $9.1 billion in the most recent quarter. The metric represents the amount of USDC held within the platforms of major distribution partners, such asCoinbase Global
.“Here we see Circle being able to share more incentives with financial partners that leverage Circle’s infrastructure and credits USDC on-platform because Circle gross economics are so meaningfully higher,” the analyst wrote.
While USDC’s share of the stablecoin market held steady during the quarter, this isn’t necessarily a weak point “given the pace and magnitude of which competing products are emerging,” he said.
Circle makes most of its money through interest earned on the assets it uses to back its USDC coins. It collaborates with payment processors and financial institutions that agree to use the stablecoin. During the quarter, Circle unveiled partnerships with Visa and capital-market company Deutsche Börse.
“It does take some time for this new technology to get built out, but we would expect to see both USDC market share build as well as the mix of USDC improve for Circle in 2026,” Worthington said. As the network grows stronger, the pace of USDC adoption should grow, boosting the likelihood of higher margins, he said.
J.P. Morgan is generally accepting of cryptocurrencies. It developed a private blockchain for corporations and fintechs at the end of 2020, which rebranded to Kinexys just last year.
The bank has continued to expand into crypto assets. It said Wednesday that its JPM Coin deposit token was available to institutional clients following test transactions with B2C2, Coinbase, andMastercard
.
