This week’s equity market wobble, which saw a retreat in U.S. artificial intelligence-related stocks amid ongoing concerns over stretched valuations, has thrust contagion fears into the spotlight for global investors.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned this week of a “likely” 10-20% drawdown in equity markets at some point within the next two years, while the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England have both sounded the alarm bells.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the possibilities of an AI bubble in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, noting that the “very positive productivity contribution” from technology companies could be offset by uncertainty around future earning streams in the sector.
“We have to be very alert to these risks,” Bailey said.
Legrand is one of several European companies which is benefitting from the AI boom. The French company, which sells products to Alphabet, Amazonand others to help cool servers, has seen its shares surge 37% this year, roughly as much as Nvidia.
Meanwhile Kiran Ganesh, multi-asset strategist at UBS, highlighted a notable lack of volatility, adding that the broader narrative remains positive.
“We’ve had a remarkably smooth rally given the scale of investment that’s taken place, given the uncertainty about future cash flows, and given some of those concerns about valuation,” Ganesh told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Friday.
“As we’ve gone through earnings season, I think it’s reasonable to have expected some volatility, but actually when we look at the results, and they have been reassuring, we’re still up over the course of earnings season and they have been beating expectations. So although some volatility has been materializing this week, we think that’s to be expected and the bigger picture still remains positive.”
Still, many investors appear to be souring on the increasingly-stretched valuations.
In Asia, shares of SoftBank Group — which is active across AI infrastructure, semiconductor and application companies — have fallen sharply, with the Japanese group suffering almost $50 billion in weekly losses. SoftBank resumed its downward trajectory on Friday, after dropping about 10% on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, it emerged that Scion Asset Management, the hedge fund led by “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry, had built short positions against both Palantir Technologies and Nvidia, drawing the ire of Palantir CEO Alex Karp.
“Some big tech stocks are on sale, and are presenting buying opportunities for investors, especially for investors who have missed out on the market’s strength over the past two months,” said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management.
Other investors have flagged concentration risk in U.S. equities, and advocate looking further afield.
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, said stretched valuations mean the firm is neutral on U.S. names. “Emerging markets are preferred, with diversified exposure across India, Brazil, and broader EM benefiting from AI-driven investment and monetary easing,” Paolini said in a market commentary.
