- They guided B2B service revenue higher, but only marginally, from previously estimated $80M to $95M. This is a positive sign, but $15M increase in B2B service revenue is definitely not enough to cover the shortfall in yield and interest from T-Bill
- The alarming sign is that that they now expect operating expense to rise from $475-$490 to $495 to $510. A $20M increase in expense while service revenue only up by $15M indicating CRCL is now putting lots of Capital towards building future service. A good long term sign, but will pressure stock price in short term
- Management continue to provide "multi-year" USDC circulation CAGR of 40%, but we all know Q4 USDC circulation so far only grow by less than 5%.
Net net, pay "VERY CLOSE" attention to the USDC circulation volume towards end of Dec. If that number does not change, CRCL will have a big earning miss in Q4.
I expect stock price to remain under $100 until USDC ciculation growth showing signs of recovery
