AppLovin reported very strong financial results in the second quarter. Revenue increased 77% to $1.2 billion and GAAP net income increased 169% to $2.39 per diluted share. The company also completed the sale of its mobile apps business, which will let it focus on its core advertising business in the future. Management expects advertising revenue to grow 59% in the third quarter.
The investment thesis for AppLovin centers on its differentiated recommendation engine, called Axon, which leans on sophisticated artificial intelligence models to match advertiser demand with the most appropriate publisher supply. Morgan Stanley analysts have called it a "best-in-class machine learning ad engine" and have recognized AppLovin as one of the ad tech companies best positioned to benefit from generative AI.
Additionally, while AppLovin has traditionally focused on helping mobile developers market and monetization their applications, the company has recently expanded into e-commerce advertising more broadly. AppLovin also launched a self-service platform called Axon Ads Manager in October. CEO Adam Foroughi says, "Early pilots have shown positive outcomes for a range of advertisers, suggesting that any business in any vertical can harness the power of platform."
Wall Street expects AppLovin's adjusted earnings to grow at 35% annually through 2028. That makes the current valuation of 85 times earnings look relatively expensive. However, if earnings increase at 35% annually through mid-2030, the company can achieve a market value of $425 billion while its valuation drops to a more reasonable 39 times earnings. In that scenario, AppLovin passes Palantir's current market value within five years.
