建仓 URA + AMZN 基本面和商业分析
写于 2025 年 10 月 17 日（星期五）
昨晚设置了三个limit orders：URA、IBIT 和 AMZN。IBIT 之前已多次提及，这里不再赘述。以下重点谈谈 URA 和 AMZN 的投资逻辑：
1. URA 限价单 @ $52.65/股 ，计划投入 URA 资金的 1/3 建仓，并设置定投计划，准备长期持有（至少3-5 年）。
投资理由：感兴趣的坛友可以AI了解。我自己是因为前两天读了越王的一个贴后请教了几位业内朋友，最终决定建仓 URA。看好其长期潜力。
2. AMZN 限价单 @ $212。这是我的第3次买入 AMZN。截至今日，我的平均持仓成本约为 $213。
3. AMZN 的基本面和商业分析
首先从它的财报来看，我用英语写了，比较省时间。值得关注点我加黑了。
1. Robust Revenue Growth: Over the past five years, AMZN’s revenue has doubled, achieving an impressive 16% average annual growth rate for a company of its scale, particularly in e-commerce.
— 5-Year average: Meta (19%), Google (18%), AMZN (16%), Microsoft (15%), Apple (8%).
— 2025 2Q average: Meta (19%), Google (13%), AMZN (11%), Microsoft (16%) Apple (8%)
2. AWS Dominance: AWS, AMZN’s high-margin crown jewel, is the backbone for many businesses, from startups to giants like Disney, Netflix, Adobe, Capital One and Pfizer. AWS’s operating margin surged from 25% in 2023 to 37% in 2024, showcasing its exceptional profitability.
3. Advertising Growth: Since 2023, AMZN’s advertising revenue growth (15%) has outpaced Google Search’s (12%). This discovery is intriguing, possibly driven by AMZN’s integration of ads into its e-commerce ecosystem? I’m not certain about the root cause but viewing it as a positive sign.
4. Earnings Strength: AMZN’s 5-year average EPS growth is a remarkable 38%, reflecting increasing per-share profitability as the company scales.
5. High ROIC: AMZN’s ROIC stands at ~20%, outperforming most consumer internet peers.
6. Valuation: With AMZN trading around $212, its forward P/E ratio is attractive for a growth company of its caliber, making detailed calculations almost unnecessary lol
7. E-Commerce Margin Pressure: Despite AMZN’s scale advantage in e-commerce, its profit margins remain thin. Competition from Walmart, Target, and emerging Chinese players like Shein and Temu (popular among younger consumers for affordable fashion) requires constant innovation to maintain market share.
8. E-Commerce Profitability Constraints: Over the past five years, AMZN’s e-commerce margins have been limited by high operational expenses (OPEX). While e-commerce is the foundation for other revenue streams like advertising, its physical operations create a double-edged sword, hindering AMZN’s ability to match the profit margins of Meta, Google, or Microsoft.
9. Low Free Cash Flow: AMZN’s free cash flow margin is currently ~3%, though management aims to improve this to 7–8%, which would enhance flexibility for investments and share buybacks.
10. Cloud Performance: In Q2 2025, AWS generated $25B in revenue, surpassing Google Cloud ($20B) and Microsoft Azure ($12B). However, Google Cloud and Azure are growing faster, indicating intensifying competition in the cloud sector.
从上面的fundamental and business analysis, 大家应该可以看出AMZN的基本面与它的peers相比喜忧参半，那么为什么最近一段时间股价被打压呢？因为股价是前瞻性的，投资者在问自己，今后的一年，三年，五年十年这个公司的发展会怎样。这今后的日子里，毋庸置疑，谁玩得转AI，谁是老大。那么让我们来看看AMZN 的AI开发——
META, GOOG,AMZN & MSFT 在AI上都投资巨大。in general, AMZN 强调开放平台和云基础设施，META聚焦开源和社会数据利用，GOOG推动研究主导的消费者集成，MSFT 则依赖伙伴关系实现企业深度嵌入。AMZN plans to invest $100B which includes a $4B stake in Anthropic and partnerships with Meta, Cohere, and others, majority of the investment allocated enhancing AWS’ AI capabilities. However, while AWS maintains cloud dominance, AMZN lags in consumer-facing AI (e.g., chatbots), which could impact its AI leadership perception. 到目前为止，AMZN 在基础设施上强于META 的模型和GOOG 的企业份额，但弱于MSFT的企业渗透度。在我看来，AMZN 的AI开发前景还是乐观的，AI将驱动AWS收入增长（预计占云市场主导），受益于代理“App Store”潜力和社会电商推荐，而无核心业务破坏。
那么假如AMZN 在这场AI之战里打败了，它的股价会是多少呢，这是我最关心的。
AWS作为AMZN的旗舰Cloud service, 长期处于领先地位，但其增长速度相对于竞争对手正在放缓。2025年2Q， AWS的profitability growth 同比增长17.5%，而M-Azure和G-cloud分别增长39%和32%，两者均得益于更强的AI整合。如果亚马逊在AI方面未能赶上，AWS可能会丧失市场份额, 因为其它企业会转向拥有更先进AI工具的平台。至于growth 相比它的peers较弱的原因，当然主要是创新停滞和人才流失（leadership vision, company culture, and incentive structure …) 假设AWS profit growth decreases 25% due to its lagging in AI development, 它的PE肯定会被打压。结合以上数据和分析，我的估值是：P10/$170, P50/$250, P90/$300
总结：我的持仓和投资计划
I plan to continue accumulating AMZN shares if prices dip, with additional limit orders at $200，180 and 160 。
当然，从经济模型的角度来看，p10和p90的概率都只有10%，所以或许我并不能在那么低的价位买入AMZN, 或许我也并不一定能看到一个重新辉煌的$300 plus 股价的AMZN, 但是我相信一两年里合理和比较现实的股价应该在$250附近. 当然，股市并不现实或合理，充斥了太多的情绪—- greed, fear, ignorance，manipulation ….. 在金钱面前，你可以看到人性最阴暗的一面。
