Context for renewed US-China #trade flare-up:
Rewiring global supply chains at speed would push up costs and near-term #inflation.
In China, prolonged curbs on foreign exchange earning #exports would idle capacity and strain its balance of payments.
Their heavy interdependence (chart) caps the scope for lasting decoupling at speed - an #ImmutableLaw amid noisy headlines. This framing gave us conviction to dial risk back up just a week after the April 2, and is why we stay tactically pro-risk now.
