Tether's $500 Billion Valuation Target Implies a $200B+ Valuation for Circle
Introduction and Market Context
Tether, the world's leading stablecoin issuer, is
pursuing a private placement targeting a colossal $500 billion valuation by selling a ~ 3% equity stake (raising $15 billion to $20 billion). This valuation, driven by the dominance of its USDT stablecoin and massive profitability (~ $4.9 billion profit in Q2 2025), places Tether alongside private giants like OpenAl and SpaceX.
The stablecoin market has exploded from $3.8 billion in 2019 to $281.8 billion by September 2025.
• Tether and Circle (USDC) command over 88.7% of this market.
Circle's faster growth from a smaller base, particularly in the wake of regulatory clarity (e.g., the GENIUS Act), positions it as the primary challenger to Tether's dominance.
Inferring Circle's Valuation
Using Tether's target as a benchmark, the Comparable Valuation Method suggests Circle is significantly undervalued at its current ~ $30
billion market valuation.
1. Issuance Scale Ratio: Circle's USDC issuance is ~ 42% of Tether's USDT issuance ($73.3 billion/$176.6 billion ~ 0.42).
2. Base Valuation: Applying this ratio to Tether's target yields a base valuation for Circle of: $500 Billion × 0.42 = $210 Billions 3. Adjustment Factor (1.1-1.3): An upward adjustment is justified by Circle's superior regulatory compliance, transparency, and deep ties to US traditional finance.
3. This methodology suggests a reasonable valuation range for Circle of $200 Billion to $270 Billion
Profitability and Regulatory Outlook
The vast difference in the inferred vs. current valuation is rooted in contrasting profit models and regulatory standing:
While Tether currently boasts higher margins, regulatory compliance is the key determinant of future sustainability. Circle's compliant model is expected to command a compliance premium in the long term, enabling durable growth and closer integration with traditional finance, which supports the higher inferred valuation.
