The Maskirovka of a Truce Staged for May 9
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Ternopil’ – After a lengthy tug-of-war, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Vladimir Putin has decided to declare a truce from May 8 to 9, adding that «in the event of Ukraine’s attempts to carry out its criminal plans to disrupt the Victory Day celebrations, the Russian Armed Forces will respond with an attack on the center of Kyiv». At this point, it’s useful to explain to our readers how this latest farce arose, what it involves, and who it will benefit.
Let’s proceed step by step. On the ground, the Russian offensive has stalled in the areas we’ve described here, specifically in that fortress belt of Donbas, which for 12 years has prevented any full occupation of the Donetsk Oblast’. As ISW analysts have also confirmed, Putin’s troops are not only failing to advance but are losing territory. Significantly. They lost another 116 square kilometers in the past month, adding to the at least 500 already documentedin the first quarter of this year.
To clarify, they haven’t retreated much since Ukraine’s penetration of Kursk.
In the few areas where they’ve seen some limited success, they’ve only managed to control an average of 2.9 square kilometers of Ukrainian land per day, compared to 9.76 in 2025. Elsewhere, even the most dedicated Russian bloggers acknowledge it’s «a failed carnage with no way out». The small amount of Ukrainian land reclaimed in April – less than what was lost – has cost the Kremlin roughly 36,600 troops and 4,800 vehicles.
“Long-range sanctions”, as we call in Ukraine the damage inflicted on Russian oil processing facilities by Ukrainian deep strikes, hit record levels in April in terms of distance, intensity, and impact on Russian profits. According to the most conservative estimates cited by President Zelensky, Russia has lost about $7 billion in the oil industry due to these attacks. Just hours ago, the latest serious damage to the AVT-4 crude oil processing plant was confirmed, and the thick plumes of smoke rising from that and other Russian facilities have quickly become memes on social media.
From Kairiv (Kherson) to Dalnii (Belgorod), passing through Melitopol’ (Zaporizhzhia), Olkhovatka (Donetsk), and Rovenki (Luhansk), Russian command posts, missile systems, and depots for drones, ammunition, and logistics equipment are now burning every day. In a strike conducted 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border with the Russian Federation, Ukrainian-made drones hit several Su-57 and Su-34 fighter jets, further depleting the already depleted Russian air fleet.
Moscow responded with carpet bombing of Ukrainian cities, trying to overwhelm their air defenses, even in broad daylight. In just ten hours of daylight two days ago, from 8:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m., the Russian Air Force launched 88 high-explosive drones and an Iskander-M missile at them. As Zelensky recalled, last week the Russians used about 1,600 long-range UAVs, along with 1,100 glide bombs and three missiles. Cities like Cherkasy, Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytsky, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Ternopil’, and others were hit – including in their city centers – in raids targeting gas stations and civilian targets. Over 50 Russian incendiary drones rained down on those two oblast’ capitals alone. In Dnipropetrovsk, similar deadly devices damaged a bus carrying 40 children, while in Kherson, they deliberately targeted two buses carrying more Ukrainian civilians, causing destruction.
Under these conditions, after restricting – and in many cases entirely blocking – his own people’s access to the internet and ability to exchange information, the Russian dictator declared a truce that, based on our firsthand experience, involves a systematic and selective massacre of more civilians and soldiers. This includes attacks with various types of drones that twenty days ago, during a similar imaginary ‘ceasefire’, killed the son of one of our closest friends, as well as one-and-a-half-ton bombs that destroyed the centers of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Along with this bloodshed, which Western media, often influenced by Russian propaganda, shamefully keep silent, it’s important to explain that the supposed ‘ceasefire’ is actually an attempt to reposition Russian forces and equipment to more advantageous locations while Ukrainian weapons remain silent.
Under a relentless barrage that blurs night into day, civilians and military personnel in Ukraine have been under threat seven days a week for over four and a half years.
In this context, the warning of a strike on central Kyiv hangs over us if the display of the hammer, sickle, and Zs alongside the ribbon of St. George does not generate the glory Moscow desires.
Like the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, hit by a Russian missile while medical staff cared for Ukrainian children with cancer? Or the 12-story building eroded to its foundations by another Russian missile, which massacred sleeping civilians in the Solomianskyj district? And how about the religious and institutional buildings – including embassies – destroyed by Russkyj Mir in recent months?
May silence speak for the tragedy at each of those sites, and many others, as footage captures the devastation. If the regime’s pretense – posing as a truce while truly deploying a maskirovka – is clear in its premises, substance, and purpose, it’s helpful to distinguish Russian effectiveness from efficiency: their ability to strike relative to the cost per strike. The Russians are losing efficiency at an alarming rate, but still maintain a high level of destructive power thanks to their overwhelming volume of fire.
This is why it is necessary to strike at their war machine with sanctions that truly work.
In 1.533 days of war, we recorded over 250 videos from ground zero and wrote more than 1,500 articles.
We are doing our best to provide genuine, first-hand reports from zones where almost no press dares to go. This means living in a kill zone constantly. We take the risk, but without your invaluable support, our voices would remain unheard and silent. Without brave people sharing our articles from afar, they would remain unread. Our reports would go unseen, and our efforts would be lost. There’s still a lot of work to do here, as the people around us are also in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping to restore what Russia is destroying. Moving forward with only a small reimbursement for each article from a brave newspaper that believes in us is extremely challenging. That’s why we are grateful to all the kind people who support us and trust in our mission.
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We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends
为了5月9日上演的假休战
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰的前线报道
特尔诺波尔——经过漫长的拉锯，俄罗斯国防部宣布，弗拉基米尔·普京已决定在5月8日至9日宣布休战，并称“若乌克兰企图实施其破坏胜利日庆典的犯罪计划，俄罗斯武装部队将对基辅市中心发动攻击”。此刻，有必要向读者解释这出最新闹剧如何产生、包含什么内容以及将使谁受益。
（图：我在哈尔科夫地区的一个十字路口，通往伊久姆和库皮扬斯克、谢甫琴科沃与巴拉克利亚。所有这些都是乌克兰的殉难城市 — 版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
我们一步步来讲。战场上，俄军在我们此前描述的地区进攻已陷入停滞，特别是在那条多年来阻止俄军对顿涅茨克州全面占领的顿巴斯堡垒带。正如美国战争研究所（ISW）的分析所证实的那样，普京的部队不仅未能推进，反而还在失去领地，显著的失地。值得注意的是，他们在过去一个月又失去了116平方公里，加在今年第一季度已记录的至少500平方公里之上。
更准确地说，自乌克兰突破库尔斯克以来，他们并未有过此大规模撤退。
在为数不多取得有限进展的地区，他们平均每天仅控制约2.9平方公里的乌克兰土地，而2025年这一数字为9.76平方公里。其他地方，甚至最忠实的俄方博主也承认这是“一场无法脱身的失败屠杀”。四月收复的乌克兰土地甚少，少于被夺去的面积，却让克里姆林宫损失了约36,600名部队人员和4,800辆车辆。
（图：我在顿涅茨克的一条防无人机走廊旁——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在乌克兰，我们称之为“远程制裁”的，是指乌克兰深度打击对俄罗斯石油加工设施造成的损害；这些打击在四月在射程、强度和对俄罗斯利润的影响上都创下纪录。根据泽连斯基援引的最保守估计，俄罗斯在石油行业因这些袭击损失约70亿美元。就在数小时前，对AVT-4原油加工厂的最新一轮严重破坏已被证实，浓密的黑烟从该厂及其他俄罗斯设施中升起，迅速在社交媒体上成为热门图像。
从凯里夫（赫尔松）到达里尼（别尔哥罗德），经停梅利托波尔（扎波罗热）、奥尔科瓦特卡（顿涅茨克）和罗文基（卢甘斯克），俄方指挥所、导弹系统以及无人机、弹药和后勤设备仓库如今每天都在燃烧。在距乌俄边界1700公里的一次打击中，乌制无人机击中了若干苏-57和苏-34战机，进一步消耗了本已枯竭的俄空军机群。
（图：在苏梅一次俄罗斯袭击乌克兰民用基础设施后Alla和我现场报道——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
莫斯科对乌克兰的回应是对乌克兰城市进行地毯式轰炸，试图击溃其防空系统，甚至在光天化日下也如此。就在两天前的十小时白昼中，从早上8:30到下午6:30，俄空军向这些目标发射了88枚高爆无人机和一枚伊斯坎德尔-M导弹。正如泽连斯基回忆的，上周俄方使用了约1600架远程无人机，另有1100枚滑翔炸弹和三枚导弹。切尔卡瑟、敖德萨、基辅、哈尔科夫、日托米尔、赫梅利尼茨基、伊万-弗兰科夫斯克、第聂伯、克里维里赫、扎波罗热、文尼察、特尔诺皮尔等城市遭袭，包括市中心也在袭击中遭受打击，目标涉及加油站和民用目标。仅那两个州府首府就遭受了50多架俄制燃烧型无人机的轰炸。在第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克，类似致命装置损坏了一辆载有40名儿童的公交车，而在赫尔松，他们故意袭击了两辆载有更多乌克兰平民的公交车，造成毁灭性后果。
（视频：基辅一次俄方袭击将一栋12层公寓摧毁至地下室后，我录下了这些影像——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
（视频：基辅一次俄方袭击了一个人口密集的历史遗址后，我录下了这些影像——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
（视频：Alla和我在特尔诺皮尔录下这些镜头，俄方袭击击中了人口高度密集区——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在这些情况下，在限制甚至完全切断其国民上互联网和信息交流的能力后，那位俄罗斯独裁者宣布休战。根据我们的第一手经验，这所谓的休战实际上包含对更多平民与军人的系统性、选择性屠杀。包括各种类型的无人机袭击，二十天前的类似虚构“停火”期间这些无人机曾炸死我们一位最亲密朋友的儿子，以及将克拉马托尔斯克和斯洛维扬斯克市中心夷为平地的1.5吨重炸弹。
除了这血腥杀戮——西方媒体往往受俄宣传影响而可耻地保持沉默，还需说明，这个所谓的“停火”实际上是俄军在乌克兰武器保持沉默时，试图将军力与装备向更有利位置重新部署的伪装行动。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰顿涅茨克克拉马托尔斯克机场报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在连续不断的炮火中，昼夜难分，乌克兰的平民与军人四年半多来每周七天都处于威胁之中。
在此情境下，如果锤子、镰刀与Z字样并列圣乔治缎带的展示不能带来莫斯科所渴望的荣耀，那么对基辅市中心的袭击威胁就像一柄达摩克利斯之剑悬在我们头上。
比如奥赫玛蒂特儿童医院，在医务人员照料患癌儿童时被俄导弹击中？又或者索洛米扬斯基区那一栋12层楼楼房被一枚俄导弹夷为平地，将沉睡的平民屠杀？再比如近月来被“俄罗斯世界”摧毁的宗教与机构性建筑——包括大使馆？
（视频：俄军袭击了基辅“奥赫玛蒂特”儿科肿瘤医院后，我录制了这些影像——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
愿那些地点及许多其他地点的悲剧在沉默中诉说，影像记录着毁灭。如果该政权以“休战”为幌子实为一场伪装军事行动，在其前提、实质与目的上已昭然若揭，那么区分俄方的有效性与效率便有助于理解：即其打击能力与每次打击成本之间的关系。俄军的效率正在以惊人的速度下降，但凭借其压倒性的火力规模仍保持巨大的破坏能力。
这就是为何必须对其战争机器实施真正有效的制裁。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰切尔尼戈夫的一座墓地报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
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我们尽最大努力从几乎没有媒体敢进入的地带进行真实的一手报道，这意味着我们长期生活在“杀伤区”。我们承担风险，但若没有你们宝贵的支持，我们的声音将无从传出。若没有远方的勇敢的人们转发分享我们的文章，它们将无人问津。我们的报道会被忽视，我们的努力将付诸流水。这里还有大量工作要做，周围的人们境况同样艰难。
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