上个季度, Meta 。。。。。

Meta

  • Last qaurter, Meta reported capital expenditures for 2025 of  $72 billion, significantly higher than prior guidance, stock tanked $100 next day, and eventually went down 25% from its ATH of 795 to 580. PE was 19 and no one wanted to touch the stock.
  • Today, Meta announced 2026 CapEx forecast at approximately 115 billion to 135 billion, 73% increase from that of 2025, yet, stock jumped 50 points in afterhours, rallying back to 717

MSFT

  • Today, MSFT reported 39% cloud business growth, but with 37B Capex spending, higher than previous guidance of 33B, stock tanked $30 in afterhours.  
  • If MSFT were to also tank 25% from its ATH, its stock price would sit at 410 with a PE of 24, and right inside that giant gap from last April. This all sounds familair? You know what to do if and when you see that :)

所有跟帖: 

That is a screaming buy. -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 16:38:43

这个比较好! -huahuaflower- 给 huahuaflower 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 16:51:32

其实我不理解这背后的逻辑,很多时候投资者的情绪,不可琢磨。基本上就是羊群效应。 -桃花源里人家- 给 桃花源里人家 发送悄悄话 桃花源里人家 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 16:54:31

应该说是韭菜心理:) -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 三心三意 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 17:03:00

从女大股价反应来看,我不看好spending,目前上717是更多在其他方面吧? -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 17:24:19

是别的方面,季报挺好的。盘后最高到了742.98, 如果明后天能重新站上741,那就是good stuff -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 17:26:43

我是感觉它家的推荐算法进步不少,不由自主我就点进去下单了;另外出门周围有年轻女孩的地方能看到她们用instagram -dancingpig- 给 dancingpig 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 21:28:23

估计羊群还没有这么快的意识到和NVDA 紧密相关性。看明天职业队上场后的表现吧。而且女大目前有它自己面临竞争的问题。 -桃花源里人家- 给 桃花源里人家 发送悄悄话 桃花源里人家 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 17:35:51

谢谢提供这些对比信息。既然Meta有这样大的开销,Meta是不是反弹太多了,也许会跌回700以下?猜的 -Blueview2026- 给 Blueview2026 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 16:57:26

关键还是市场看到,投资带来了回报,没有影响盈利,而这些投资如果没有影响目前盈利,而且对未来有很大好处,就该涨。 -桃花源里人家- 给 桃花源里人家 发送悄悄话 桃花源里人家 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 17:32:26

谢谢你解释 -Blueview2026- 给 Blueview2026 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 18:00:48

This makes sense -ihavingfun- 给 ihavingfun 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 18:35:25

这两公司业务不一样,AI变现速度不一样,不知能否类比。但-25% from top for any mags,都值得加仓 -HappyWed- 给 HappyWed 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 17:07:05

好像盘后交易不太具备代表性,正常交易后价格会出现方向的变化。是不是没有机构参与盘后? -ihavingfun- 给 ihavingfun 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 18:22:28

谢谢提醒, 十分高明! -ca033- 给 ca033 发送悄悄话 (167 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 18:49:40

盘后显然是机构拉升导致的 -天气晚来秋- 给 天气晚来秋 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 21:14:00

怎么解读都在机构,我就是觉得机构能一致行动就后背发凉 -天气晚来秋- 给 天气晚来秋 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2026 postreply 21:15:00

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