BA明早ER，供有兴趣的朋友参考

Boeing: Earnings Preview; this should be BA's final unprofitable quarter in the pandemic era  (167.75 -8.27)

Boeing (BA) is set to report Q1 results tomorrow before the open (they typically release at 7:30am ET) with a call to follow at 10:30am ET. The CapitalIQ consensus estimate for Q1 core EPS (non-GAAP) is a $(0.25) loss vs $(1.53) a year ago. Revenue is expected to grow 5% yr/yr to $15.90 bln. Of note, Boeing always reports deliveries a couple of weeks before earnings, so that is not new information.

• What stands out to us is that Q1 is expected to be the last unprofitable quarter for Boeing during this pandemic downturn. The company is expected to return to profitability in Q2 and remain so going forward, which is fitting because UAL and AAL said last week that they expect to return to profitability in Q2 also.
• Earnings have been unpredictable for BA in recent quarters. Last time, the company reported a much larger loss than expected at $(7.69) per share. A big chunk of that was from a non-cash charge related to a delay in its 787 program. Boeing also reported a big miss on revenue.
• There is no doubt that commercial market demand continues to gain traction. We suspect BA may describe a pause in Q1 due to Omicron, but the industry recovery is clearly underway. We suspect we will get a bullish view for Q2-Q4. And BA is in good position in terms of supply chain issues. It stockpiled a bunch of planes during the pandemic, so it is in a good position to make deliveries as demand requires them.
• A big topic on the call will be setbacks at its various programs. Its 787 program has hit a snag. In January, BA disclosed it was having some structural issues with the fuselage. Boeing has been working with the FAA to fix the problems. We will want an update here. There was also a China Eastern Airlines flight that crashed in southern China in March. This plane was a 737-800 NG, not a 737 MAX. But we have to wonder if this will impact the MAX return to service in China.
• Finally, the stock has been in a downward trend since early June 2021. There have been spikes higher, but the overall trend is down. The 787 and 737 MAX snags have impacted sentiment. However, we think the milestone of returning to profitability and likely discussion on a robust recovery in air travel this summer could get the stock to stabilize and possibly get it back on the upswing.