美国国债市场，在相当程度上是受控的市场。

当11/3/2021，FOMC正式宣布Tapering，美国长期国债的价格非但不跌，而且还涨，其内在逻辑是怎样？几天来一直让人困惑，直至看到下面的一段：

The U.S. Treasury announced reduced issuance across maturities. The 20-year auction will see the largest cut, followed by the 7-year and then other maturities across the curve. Some estimates call for cuts of approximately $800 billion in issuance from October of this year through the end of next year. Remember this $800 billion number. At the same time, the Federal Reserve announced that it will begin tapering asset purchases by $15 billion per month ($10 billion of Treasuries with the remainder being mortgage-backed securities). At this pace, pandemic-related quantitative easing will wind down by mid-2022. The Fed taper will result in a net reduction in purchases of approximately $800 billion. Sound familiar?

Another way to view this is in 10-year equivalent duration terms. We take every tenor that is auctioned by the U.S. Treasury, and the same for the Fed Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO), and convert them into a common duration of 10 years. The chart to the right shows the expected monthly net Treasury supply (i.e. Treasury issuance less Fed POMO) in terms of 10-year equivalents. Despite the Fed pumping the brakes on purchases, net Treasury supply is not expected to materially rise. Less net issuance and still-transitory inflation will keep rates low.

所以，

• The Federal Reserve has announced the beginning of their tapering — likely to be concluded by mid-2022.
• Treasury issuance will fall over the next year.
• The two points above net out and will keep rates low.

所有跟帖： 

• Yes and No. Lots of if here. -Beyond_Soros- ♂ (106 bytes) () 11/11/2021 postreply 09:54:20

• 贴这个帖子的意思主要是指国债市场受Fed和财政部的影响很大。 -行道人- ♂ (155 bytes) () 11/11/2021 postreply 10:07:16

• 这个同意，维护国债市场的相对稳定是他们的职责。 -Beyond_Soros- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/11/2021 postreply 10:18:22