I am thinking giving my statistics students extra HW.

I read this news this morning and thought about giving my Case Western Reserve University statistics students extra HW. My TA thinks that this is a good opportunity for them to apply Statistics to real life. Do you like this idea?

Vote Intention (Likely Voters)

	MI	PA	WI
Biden	52%	52%	53%
Trump	42%	44%	44%
Other/Not Sure	5%	3%	3%
N	681	669	647

 

https://news.wisc.edu/new-polls-show-biden-with-growing-leads-in-three-battleground-states/

Please construct 95% confidence interval for Biden's winning proportion and Trump's winning proportion.  What is your conclusion about the election 2020? There are 5%, 3%, and 3% undecided voters. What % of undecided voters vote for Trump would make him a possible winner? (You have to use Excel Goal Seek). 

How to use Excel Goal Seek:

1. Highlight the cell you want to seek goal (Set Cell)
   1. Click Data
   2. Selected What-if analysis
2. Click Goal Seek
   1. Specify to value
   2. Select by changing cell
   3. Then you will get what value you need to change to get your goal value.
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcKCUDyF73Y

Solutions:

Biden’s 95% confidence interval for winning proportion is (0.4835, 0.5575) in MI, (0.4821, 5579) in PA, and (0.4915, 0. 5685) in WI.  He still could lose. 

Trump’s 95% confidence interval for winning proportion is (0.3829, 4571) in MI, (0.4024, 0.4776) in PA, and (0.4018, 0. 4782) in WI.  He could not win unless more than 85% of undecided voters vote for Trump.  

See Excel file attached.

I will tell my students. If you can get a full score 10, then your HWs will get an extra full score 10. If you cannot get a full score, I will ignore it. Enjoy. 

我已经在Canvas上张贴了额外作业,交作业期限为11月3日晚上11:59。

 

所有跟帖： 

• 你们还是用R吧? -BeLe- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:02:50

• 本科生不用R， 研究生用。 -雨婷她爹- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:17:50

• 俺家熊娃大一就可以学R了 -fantasticdream- ♂ (177 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:21:07

• 各个学校不同。我们Case Western Reserve University 认为公司大部份经理用Excel. -雨婷她爹- ♂ (168 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:29:38

• 经理、manager用Excel的多，workbee 用R/Python/Excel都有 -姜申- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:45:27

• 沃顿也用R？据说工程用R多：）俺二娃跟着一个化工老师做project，就先学R -金一位- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 17:01:19

• R非常好。免费。我以前用SAS做研究，现在用R。 -雨婷她爹- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 17:12:48

• Python & R都教 -fantasticdream- ♂ (177 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 17:25:19

• Python on Microsoft is also free, but I do not like it. -雨婷她爹- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 17:53:06

• 给文科生补个课吧， 神魔是R？ -艾秋- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 20:29:36

• 你这题太难了，估计没几个会做。。。 -borisg- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:32:41

• 大部份应该会做。 -雨婷她爹- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 13:35:05

• 用计算器按一下就可以了， -datuzi- ♀ (40 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 16:08:12

• 不是按计算器。是要学生用Confidence Interval formula来计算。 -雨婷她爹- ♂ (158 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 16:54:31

• 对，就是照公式算std error. 还要跟他们讲讲sampling吧，几个million的注册人数。 -datuzi- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 17:36:46

• 调查人数已知。 -雨婷她爹- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2020 postreply 17:48:44

• 不要把功課政治化，考慮不用候選人真名。 -wlwt123- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/30/2020 postreply 15:38:00