Good article about today's "panicky" day of selling,

来源: amateurs 2020-03-12 17:35:24 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (4508 bytes)
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COVID-19 concerns at fevered selling pitch

The selling in the stock market is going to persist at today's open and it will be aggressive. The futures are limit-down with a 5% decline. Separately, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is trading 6.8% lower in pre-market action.

As a reminder, the first circuit breaker is enacted when the S&P 500 declines 7%, which then leads to a halt in trading for 15 minutes.

Once again, the negative bias is wrapped up in worries about the spread of the coronavirus, which have hit home (and close to home in certain instances) with the NBA suspending its season, the NCAA planning to hold its basketball tournaments without fans, Italy closing all shops, except grocery stores and pharmacies, and the president last night announcing a 30-day ban on travel from 26 European countries, starting at midnight on Friday.

President Trump's Oval Office address regarding the coronavirus has been a hot topic of conversation this morning, with critics saying it came up short of expectations in terms of a fiscal stimulus plan and short of expectations in boosting consumer confidence.

Those criticisms may be subject to debate, yet the market itself was a tell as the futures rolled over as the president was speaking and continued to decline after he concluded his speech.

Not surprisingly, travel-related stocks are down sharply in pre-market action, as the travel ban makes a bad revenue and earnings situation even worse.

The crux of the matter, though, is that all of the efforts being made to curtail the spread of the coronavirus are going to produce negative economic outcomes that will weigh far and wide on earnings prospects since they are also curtailing consumer and business spending.

What's more is that investors don't have a handle on how long this situation will persist, so there is a sell-first-ask-questions later approach that is driving the material decline in stock prices.

Today has the potential to be a "panicky" day of selling, which is good and bad. The bad will be in the magnitude of the losses. The good could be in a budding awareness that panicky selling after large losses already is often the pathway to a near-term bottom that leads to a snapback rally.

There is a lot of smoke right now, though, that makes it challenging to assess any trading situation, so all one can be certain of is that volatility is going to remain high and price swings will remain wide.

 

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