昨晚提醒债率倒挂，今早盘前6am首现2年-10年倒挂。倒挂到衰退平均22月(最短14月)；倒挂之后12个月普指平均涨幅12％

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/us-bonds-yield-curve-at-flattest-level-since-2007-amid-risk-off-sentiment.html 

Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning

PUBLISHED TUE, AUG 13 2019  4:19 AM EDTUPDATED WED, AUG 14 2019  5:02 PM EDT

KEY POINTS

• Earlier Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623%, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%.
• The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit.
• A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following such an inversion, according to Credit Suisse.

 

 

所有跟帖： 

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