“ The prime purpose of a business corporation is to pay dividends regularly and, presumably, to increase the rate as time goes on.”
— Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis, 1934
"... (The true investor) will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies."
‐ Benjamin Graham World Commodities and World Currencies, 1944, p. 42
有不少人认为我的投资思想就是重视红利,长期持有,我要说明的这是完全错误的投资思想 ,重复一遍这是完全错误的投资思想。
From Chapter 20 of Benjamin Graham's book The Intelligent Investor:
"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. It is amazing to see how many capable businessmen try to operate in Wall Street with complete disregard of all the sound principles through which they have gained success in their own undertakings. Yet every corporate security may best be viewed, in the first instance, as an ownership interest in, or a claim against, a specific business enterprise. And if a person sets out to make profits from security purchases and sales, he is embarking on a business venture of his own, which must be run in accordance with accepted business principles if it is to have a chance of success."
'Investing is more intelligent when it is most businesslike'
我谈论的所有内容都是关于如何使用投资的基本常识在股市中投资一门值得投资的生意,也可以说我是股市中信仰价值投资理念的生意人。在投资中我首先思考的是这是怎样的一门生意,然后才是其它细节。
I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor.-巴菲特
每一次在市场最高位,加国银行股价创历史新高的时候,都会有网友问我现在还可不可以买银行股票,从来没有人在市场和股价低迷的时候问过我这个问题。这个问题实际上不太好回答。 如果一定要做一个选择,我的回答是买。
There was only one 10 year period loss and that was from 1964 to 1974 and the loss was -1.1%. (TSX Index )
从1957年至今,十年投资期限,TSX Index亏损年份的概率是2%,亏损幅度是-1.1%, 所以今天买入,从中长期看,亏损的可能性小于2%,亏损幅度小于1%。以年均12%的回报均值计算,十年大约是二倍,200%的利润,所以这里是2%亏损1%的可能性对应大概率的200%的利润,是极小概率的极小亏损对比极大概率的大利润,值得做。
但是在今天选择买入股票的人中,绝大多数人或者90%以上的人是不可能坚持十年的,这里的原因和指数投资是一样的。我的同事中超过半数的人在小有获利的时候就卖掉了股票,卖掉之后股价又涨了50%,所以在实战中,绝大多数人或者90%以上的人会半途而废的,而且是一定会发生的,在我的同事之中已经发生过了。
从DGI的理论角度,今天买入之后 ,股价跌得越多越好,因为这有利于红利复利再投资,但是这样的实际效果并不好,原因都不用说了。
股市波动中大跌的情况会对投资者产生压力。
如果明天TD下跌45%,女网友的投资会跌到本金水平,如果跌幅大于45%, 压力幅度会开始加速增大,能够坚持的可能性会大大降低。
如果是在投资初期股价大跌,因为投入的总数并不大,实际的压力也不可能大。
我个人认为大跌影响最大的时间是第一年底和第二年上半年。
十年之后,TD股价需要下跌60%以上,才触及投资成本线,投资者可能受到的压力挑战不算太大。
所以,开始阶段比较难,时间越长越 容易。
TD 银行股票投资的思考 20170312
(2017-03-12 10:29:28)
如果随机的用每年的3月10日为起始点,过去二十年的每年3月10日买入,一年后的投资回报如下。
(2017-03-10,TD股价下跌了5.55%)
1996 - 1997 78.17%
1997 - 1998 57.32%
1998 - 1999 8.04%
1999 - 2000 8.80%
2000 - 2001 26.21%
2001 - 2002 9.43%
2002 - 2003 -22.22%
2003 - 2004 54.42%
2004 - 2005 12.05%
2005 - 2006 35.95%
2006 - 2007 8.47%
2007 - 2008 -8.99%
2008 - 2009 -34.74%
2009 - 2010 92.44%
2010 - 2011 20.96%
2011 - 2012 2.23%
2012 - 2013 7.60%
2013 - 2014 24.23%
2014 - 2015 8.00%
2015 - 2016 6.64%
2016 - 2017 25.46%
2016年3月10日买入的TD股票,在2017年3月10日经历某些人眼中的大跌暴跌之后,买出一半,可以将另一半的持股成本降至43左右,相对目前“大跌”之后的股价66,有着比较大安全边际,长期持有剩下的股份,可能心理比较容易做到。
这样的机会,在随机日期为3月10日时,二十一年出现了9次。
如果将一年的时限改为二年
1996 - 1998 182%
1997 - 1999 70%
1998 - 2000 18%
1999 - 2001 37%
2000 - 2002 38%
2001 - 2003 -15%
2002 - 2004 19%
2003 - 2005 71%
2004 - 2006 52%
2005 - 2007 47%
2006 - 2008 -2%
2007 - 2008 -40%
2008 - 2010 25%
2009 - 2011 133%
2010 - 2012 24%
2011 - 2013 10%
2012 - 2014 34%
2013 - 2015 34%
2014 - 2016 15%
2015 - 2017 34%
二十年出现了15次的机会。
如果将一年的时限改为三年
1996 - 1999 304%
1997 - 2000 85%
1998 - 2001 48%
1999 - 2002 50%
2000 - 2003 7%
2001 - 2004 30%
2002 - 2005 33%
2003 - 2006 132%
2004 - 2007 65%
2005 - 2008 34%
2006 - 2009 -36%
2007 - 2010 14%
2008 - 2011 52%
2009 - 2012 138%
2010 - 2013 33%
2011 - 2014 37%
2012 - 2015 44%
2013 - 2016 43%
2014 - 2017 44%
19年中出现了16次机会。(按照目前态势,20年应该是17次机会 )
对于TD这类优质的长期蓝筹股,如果能用相当于市场价格的50%以下的持股成本建立长期仓位是比较理想的。
要做到这一点,从某个角度看,是比较简单容易的。
2011年,老巴印度之行的谈话
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”