关于天然气供需， 昨天看到一篇报告，转贴如下（ 报告中的资料我不保证准确）

发送悄悄话 第6楼 2017-12-28 19:41:17

发表于: 2017-12-28 19:41:17 [编辑] [删除] [引用] Dec. 29 Natural Gas Weekly: Storage Forecast And Update On Supply/Demand Balance Dec. 28, 2017 4:22 PM ET  |  14 comments  |   Includes: BOIL, DCNG, DGAZ, FCG, GASX, GAZB, KOLD, MLPG, UGAZ, UNG, UNL   Bluegold Research     Commodities, medium-term horizon, trader MARKETPLACE Natural Gas Fundamentals (1,435 followers) Summary Total demand for American natural gas is up 35% y-o-y to 800 bcf. Total natural gas supply is up 8.0% y-o-y to 86.2 bcf per day. We currently expect EIA to report a draw of 218 bcf next week. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Natural Gas Fundamentals. This report covers the week ending December 29, 2017. Daily data for December 23 to December 28 is estimated. Daily data for December 29 is forecast. To read last week’s report, please click here. Total Supply/Demand Balance We estimate that aggregate demand for American natural gas (consumption plus exports) will total just more than 800 bcf this week (up some 21% w-o-w, and up as much as 35% y-o-y). The deviation from the norm stayed positive and jumped from +12% to +35% (see the chart below). According to our calculations, aggregate demand for U.S. natural gas (on a weekly basis) has been above nine-year norm since February 24, 2017. The number of heating-degree-days rose sharply across the mainland U.S. (lower 48), but the increase in heating demand was especially profound in the Midwest and Northeast parts of the country. Total exports dropped 5% w-o-w, as flows into Canada slowed. In annual terms, however, total exports were up 30%, thanks to strong foreign demand for LNG. According to Marine Traffic data, no less than five LNG tankers (total natural gas carrying capacity of 17 bcf) departed from Sabine Pass over the past seven days. * Norm defined as simple average over the last nine years. Source: Bluegold Research We estimate that dry gas production has been expanding in annual terms for 30 consecutive weeks now. However, the rate has slowed lately. Indeed, it could continue to slow in the short term due to base effects, but also because of possible freezing of natural gas wells in North Dakota and Pennsylvania, as temperatures are expected to drop below zero (celsius). Currently, we estimate that dry gas production will average 77.7 bcf/d in December, 77.4 bcf/day in January and 78.1 bcf/day in February. Total aggregate supply of natural gas (production plus imports) averaged just over 86.0 bcf per day for the week ending December 29 (up 8.0% y-o-y). Overall, total supply/demand balance should be negative at around -205 bcf. It is the fourth negative physical balance this withdrawal season. The volume is some 155 bcf lower than a week ago, and as much as 150 bcf below 5-year average for this time of the year (see the chart below). In absolute terms, and with all other things being equal, this kind of volume is bullish for natural gas prices, since it is significantly lower than last year’s level and is also below the historical norm. That does not mean, of course, that natural gas prices will continue to rise. If you want to know how we are navigating thorough the current market environment and see our trading exposure, consider signing up for our exclusive content (see the link below). Note, that the total Supply-Demand Balance does not equal storage flows. Source: Bluegold Research Storage This Thursday, the EIA reported a draw of 112 bcf, which was 4 bcf larger than our estimate of 108 bcf. Total storage now stands at 3,332 bcf, which is 85 bcf (or 2.49%) below the five-year average for this time of the year. Currently, we expect EIA to report a draw of 218 bcf next week (final estimate will be released next Tuesday). Our latest projection is lower than the comparable figure in the ICE’s latest report for EII-US EIA Financial Weekly Index, implying a possibility for a bullish surprise. Overall, at this point in time, we expect storage flows to average -258 bcf over the next three reports. Natural gas inventories deviation from the five-year average should decrease from -2.49% today to -13.53% for the week ending January 12. Please note that we are updating our forecasts on a daily basis. Quick Commentary on the Recent Price Action Natural gas price is up almost 11% over the course of just two trading sessions. This sharp correction is long overdue and is entirely expected. Check out the evolution of storage forecasts in the chart below. Notice that we have been consistently revising our storage outlook lower. The total for three reports declined from -771 bcf on December 15 to -883 bcf today. So it was only a matter of time before the market realizes how significantly "mispriced" the natural gas is vis-a-vis its fundamentals. That is the reason we continued to hold our long positions in February, March and April contracts and did not liquidate on December 15 and December 21 as many traders did. Source: Bluegold Research   Thank you for reading our weekly report. We also write a daily update of our forecast for key natural gas variables: production, consumption, exports, and imports. Interested in getting this daily update? Sign up for Natural Gas Fundamentals, our Marketplace service, to get the most critical natural gas data.