前天转帖中的一段内容

I often look here to make sure I am not seeing the trees looking like the Nifty Fifty.  When I see 20x or 30x P/E ratios on the S&P 500 index, I look at individual stocks to see if I see the same thing. If I do, maybe I worry. If I don't, I don't worry at all and assume the high market P/E is due to large cap, speculative names trading at high P/E's and/or hard-hit industries dragging down the 'E', or some of both.

Speaking of the Nifty Fifty, in the Bogle book I mentioned here the other day (Bogle book), he mentions a Jeremy Siegel study that showed that 50 nifty stocks bought at the start of 1971, near the peak, marginally outperformed the market over the subsequent 25 years.  Nifty Fifty returned 12.4%/year versus 11.7%/year for the stock market.

 

That's kind of crazy.  Even if you bought the Nifty Fifty at near the top, you would've beaten the market over the next 25 years, returning an above average 12.4%/year. By average, I mean the market returned 10%/year in the past 100 years or so.

Nifty Fifty 肯定是个非常错误的投资决策，但是即使是这个非常错误的投资决策，依然战胜了股指，而且这里没有任何交易技巧的因素。

在老巴的投资历程中，至少有三次股价折损50%，但是这阻挡不了他的财富一次又一次的创新高。

股价大跌50%是他愿意接受的投资方式的一部分。

评价股指投资方式，应该从股指角度考虑风险和回报。

未来股指大跌是必然会发生的事，但是不管多大的跌幅都阻挡不了股指可以创新高。

历史经验告诉我们，能够成功躲避大跌人，也一定会成功的躲避大涨。