Baby Buster No.1 Asian women

Baby Bust

Baby Bust by Race

Baby Bust by Age

The Wall Street Journal concludes “There’s still good reason to believe the birth rate will pick up in coming years. After slumping for nearly a decade into the 1970s, births picked up in the 1980s and 1990s (giving us the generation known as millennials.) The most common age in America is 24 or 25, meaning there’s a very large cohort of these millennials who are about to hit the years that people are most likely to become parents.”

No Mystery

I fail to see why any economist should be surprised by this. A record number of millennials are living at home.

• Time: Millennials Living With Parents at Record Rates
• Pew: More Millennials Living With Family Despite Improved Job Market
• Mother Jones: Why Are So Many Millennials Still Living at Home?

This is simply too obvious. So I have two questions:

1. Do economists read anything or do they just believe in their models?
2. If they do read, how come they cannot grasp simple, easy to understand ideas?

Economists who could not figure any of this out now place their faith in the fact “a very large cohort of these millennials who are about to hit the years that people are most likely to become parents.”

Mish’s Alternate View

Unless the millennials

1. Shed student debt
2. Move out on their own
3. Get a job that supports raising a family
4. No longer have to take care of their aging parents
5. Have a significant change in attitudes about homes, families, debt, and mobility ….

economists will still be wondering “what happened” years from now.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

所有跟帖： 

• 按这图，今年考大学还是人数最少的年份，以后几年是上升趋势。悲剧啊。 -greenoasis- ♀ (89 bytes) () 06/07/2016 postreply 20:21:29

• What were you busy at in 1990? -career- ♂ (709 bytes) () 06/07/2016 postreply 23:05:58