1. 政府监管是靠不住的。记得格林斯潘,伯南克等等在电视上信誓旦旦地说房地产危机是区域性的,影响不大的。当然,金融危机之后,我希望情况有很大改善
2. 我们小散户不可能有电影里的主人公那样对市场的了解和洞察力。事实上,华尔街的大行往往也都看不清形势或者因利益因素采取不说真话。对经济乃至对具体公司的走向,都是如此。
小散户要学会独立思考!
3. 即使看对了,市场不认同还是没戏。小散户能做的一是仓位管理,二是在不利情形下快速掉头,止损
4. Follow the smart money! 跟巴菲特还是索罗斯,重点在于timing。
关于第一男主角Michael Burry,他的经历堪称传奇,可见机会垂青于有准备的人,而不是偶然的。
Early life and education[edit]
Burry was born in 1971 and attended Santa Teresa High School in San Jose, California.[2][3][4] He attended the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) for his undergraduate education in economics and pre-med studies. He graduated from Vanderbilt University School of Medicine[3] and did his residency in neurology at Stanford Hospital and Clinics.[5] While off duty at night, he worked on his hobby, financial investing.[5] On one occasion, Burry had been working so hard studying both for medical school and his personal financial interests that he fell asleep standing up during a complicated surgery and crashed into the oxygen tent that had been built around the patient. As a result, he was thrown out of the operating room by the lead surgeon.[6]
Investment career[edit]
Burry left work as a Stanford Hospital neurology resident to start his own hedge fund. He had already developed a reputation as an investor by demonstrating astounding success in "value investing," which he wrote about onmessage boards on the stock discussion site Silicon Investor beginning in 1996. He was so successful with his stock picks that he attracted the interest of such companies as Vanguard, White Mountains Insurance Group and such prominent investors as Joel Greenblatt.
After shutting down his website in November 2000, Burry started Scion Capital, funded by a small inheritance and loans from his family. The company was named after The Scions of Shannara, a favorite book, which was published in March 1990, when Burry was 19 years old. Burry quickly earned extraordinary profits for his investors. According to the author Michael Lewis, "in his first full year, 2001, the S&P 500 fell 11.88 percent. Scion was up 55 percent. The next year, the S&P 500 fell again, by 22.1 percent, and yet Scion was up again: 16 percent. The next year, 2003, the stock market finally turned around and rose 28.69 percent, but Mike Burry beat it again—his investments rose by 50 percent. By the end of 2004, Mike Burry was managing $600 million and turning money away."[3]