ZT 我遇到的一位明星技术分析师

Several years ago,  an excellent market analyst, in fact, he was one of the best I've ever met，was a know-it-all and extremely arrogant.
几年前，一个优秀的市场分析师，实际上，他是我遇到的最优秀的分析人士之一。 他什么都知道，也因此非常自大。

One day, he took a position as a star technical analyst with a fairly substantial brokerage house and clearing firm in Chicago.
有一次，他进入芝加哥的一家大型经纪清算公司担当明星技术分析师。

The semiretired chairman of the board of the brokerage firm was a longtime trader with nearly 40 years of experience in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade. He didn’t know much about technical analysis, because he never needed it to make money on the floor. But he no longer traded on the floor and found the transition to trading from a screen difficult and somewhat mysterious. So he asked the firm’s newly acquired star technical analyst to sit with him during the trading day and teach him technical trading. The new hire jumped at the opportunity to show off his abilities to such an experienced and successful trader.
这 家经纪公司的主席快退休了，他在芝加哥交易所谷物品种的场内交易了接近40年。因为他在场内交易，不需要技术分析，所以他不懂技术分析。但是他现在不在场 内交易了，他发现看着屏幕交易真难，有点神奇。所以他让公司新招的明星技术分析师坐在他旁边，教他用技术进行交易。这位新来的分析师抓住机会，向有丰富经 验的成功交易者展示自己的能力。

The analyst was using a method called “point and line,” developed by Charlie Drummond. (Among other things, point and line can accurately define support and resistance.) One day, as the two of them were watching the soybean market together, the analyst had projected major support and resistance points and the market happened to be trading between these two points. As the technical analyst was explaining to the chairman the significance of these two points, he stated in very emphatic, almost absolute terms that if the market goes up to resistance, it will stop and reverse; and if the market goes down to support, it will also stop and reverse. Then he explained that if the market went down to the price level he calculated as support, his calculations indicated that would also be the low of the day.
这位分析师用的 方法叫“点线”，是查理•德拉蒙德发明的（在所有的方法中，点线可以准确地定义支撑和阻力）。一天，两个人正在一起看大豆市场，这个分析师预测了支撑点和 阻力点，市场正好在这两点振荡。当时，分析师向主席解释了这两点的重要性，他说的很明确，几乎用了绝对的口气，如果市场涨到阻力点，它就会停止并反转；如 果市场跌到支撑点，它也会停止并反转。他还解释了，如果市场跌到了他计算出的支撑点，那么他的计算表明这就是当天的最低点。

As they sat there, the bean market was slowly trending down to the price the analyst said would be the support, or low, of the day. When it finally got there, the chairman looked over to the analyst and said, “This is where the market is supposed to stop and go higher, right?” The analyst responded, “Absolutely! This is the low of the day.”  “That’s bullshit!” the chairman retorted. “Watch this.” He picked up the phone, called one of the clerks handling orders for the soybean pit, and said, “Sell two million beans (bushels) at the market.” Within thirty seconds after he placed the order, the soybean market dropped ten cents a bushel. The chairman turned to look at the horrified expression on the analysts face. Calmly, he asked, “Now, where did you say the market was going to stop? If I can do that, anyone can.”
当他们坐在那里时，大豆市场慢慢地跌到所谓的支撑 点或当天的最低点。当价格最终到了支撑点时，主席看着分析师说：“市场将在这里停住并上涨，对吗？”分析师回应：“绝对是的！这就是今天的最低点。”“你 在胡扯！”主席反驳道：“看这个。”他拿起电话，打给场内帮他下单的职员，并说：“以市价卖出200万（蒲式耳）的大豆。”他下单后的30秒后，大豆下跌 了10美分/蒲式耳。主席转身看着分析师惊恐的脸色。他冷静地问道：“现在你说市场会在哪里停住？如果我可以这么做，任何人都可以这么做。”

所有跟帖： 

• 分析師看的是广大散户的行为心态数据。遇上可被大戶庄家操控的盘。就乌云了。 -欣笛- ♀ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 07:59:25

• 瞎编的故事。 -加拿大中医- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:04:27

• 这是《炒股圣典》的里面的一个小故事。 -双手互搏- ♂ (86 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:08:23

• 对庄家阻力支撑是用来突破的，对散户阻力支撑是用来进出货的 -alwaysbull- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:13:36

• 哈哈哈。明白人！ -icQQ- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 09:00:19

• 故事可能是杜撰的，但其中的逻辑是合理。 -股市小书生- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:08:59

• TA毕竟雕虫小技，它只能作为道的补充或元素才有存在的意义，才是使用TA的正确方法，可惜 -久菲特- ♂ (68 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:21:53

• 我不知道这个道理，可以也赞不？ -urlreader- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:46:51

• 现在交易太大太快 -funbuddy- ♂ (256 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:25:14

• 为什么我说是瞎编的？假设主席抛出后，单子被吃掉，价格拉回到区间，意味着分析师的分析反而得到验证。 -加拿大中医- ♂ (488 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:28:31

• 这个说法把自己 -auser- ♂ (180 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:34:02

• 不知道这人 -auser- ♂ (231 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:30:37

• 图上本来是没有线的，画的人多了，大家也就信了。 -urlreader- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:45:48

• 主席肯定也用TA，他的交易也需要知道价格走势，在他的系统里只有周线，月线，他看不见分析师所看见的。分析师也没错，可以马上割肉呀 -秋天的菠萝- ♀ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:49:27

• 再说了！这样做法对分析师不公平，主席不可以看见分析师的底牌，或者分析师也有大把的钱，把主席的筹码全吃进来 -秋天的菠萝- ♀ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:52:35

• 可分析师顶多就是个参谋，手里没兵权。 -春秋往事- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 09:32:38

• 世界是多维的，简单化不对，否认简单化也不对 -再再想想- ♂ (171 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 08:53:11

• 这个寓言故事是在说：一个集团军司令（主席）VS.一个营长（技术分析师） -春秋往事- ♂ (205 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 09:21:30

• 显然的以点盖面的例子。TA 是统计，不是搞outlier。 -arewethereyet- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 09:32:07

• 是的！分析师实际是“统计学家”，主席是参与统计的一个“抽样”。 -春秋往事- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 09:37:48

• 前提是主席是市场内唯一大庄，不然这么玩会被其他庄家搞死。 -ca_lowhand- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/23/2015 postreply 12:45:50