天然气 - A post for thinking...

There is person posted a discuss on First entercast forum, very reasonable, See following:

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The winter coming is the only straw left for the bulls and yes, the winters are supposed to be colder than fall/spring/summer.

Here is an observation; purely statistical:

Take a look at the LT NG charts (I am looking at weekly) after every 2 higher price fall through winter there comes the higher price fall & lower price winter. Not bothering about Spring or Summer after.

06-07 & 07-08 up
down was 08-09
9-10 & 10-11 up
down was 11-12
12-13 & 13-14 up
what comes now?
14-15?

Can it happen again? Why not?

So many people are trapped higher up by buying the 'cheap' winter length based on 13-14 winter experience. Presumption now is they are waiting to get break even or even come close & will liquidate. They are sucking pure wind at the moment. Every big jump up will be met with large supply.

Already 10 days into the Fall, more forecasters see this current fall temp. to average above last year's avg. fall temp.
Now imagine,
what if the normal winter shows up?
What if the production keeps up its pace?
What if the industrial demand fails to go back up due to higher US$?


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My point:
There are so many bulls bought dips at $3.8, $3.7, $3.65, those bulls were trapped, will MMs let those bulls get out easily? Haha, let's see...

Second, NG Price depends on Supply/demand, remember! 2 aspects "Supply" and "demand", lot of people only consider the "demand" and ignore the "Supply", and based on 13-14 winter experience, Extra Cold winter and buy, hold for winter, remember, what you assume "COLD" is not confirmed, while the 10% large over that of last year supply is confirmed. If you ignore the Confirmed supply, but bet on the unconfirmed COLD winter weather, I can assume the result...

Good luck!

所有跟帖： 

• EIA drilling report for Oct and November,, -GreenAroow- ♂ (157 bytes) () 10/27/2014 postreply 20:23:32

• 嗯 make sense -piplup2- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/27/2014 postreply 20:45:23

• Thanks a lot for sharing. -OctMonkey- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/27/2014 postreply 20:55:30

• due for a bounce-we'll see -mgx- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/27/2014 postreply 21:23:16

• Agree, bounce always hapens, but trade better to follow the tren -GreenAroow- ♂ (67 bytes) () 10/27/2014 postreply 22:27:40

• still be careful: COT still has commercials increasing their ne -snowalot- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/28/2014 postreply 06:22:38

• COT still has commercials increasing their net longs -snowalot- ♀ (52 bytes) () 10/28/2014 postreply 06:23:10