为了庆祝十八大顺利召开，为此，我制定了新的五年规划：401K 增长到802K

再过一个多月，就要进入2013年，在此，我制定了新的五年计划。

计划目标：

在四到五年内，也就是在奥总和习总的任期内，把401K 增长到802K 。 为了达到这一宏伟的经济目标，经过精确计算，发现每年的回报率应该在 14.88888888% -19.88888888 % 之间。通过上个五年的摸索实践，特别是到大千学习，交流以来，完善理论依据和操作方法，在理论和实践上有了新的突破。以此操作方法，在过去的五年里，基本上胜利地完成了计划目标。

理论依据和方法如下：

Three factor model:  in an investment, we all expect a high return, and the expected return is at least decided by 3 factors: asset allocation, company size and, value.

1. Bond mean return: 6-10%.

2. Asset allocation:  Stock is riskier, thus giving risk premium 3-6% more bond;

3. Company size:  the smaller a company, the higher the risk, and thus it gives riskier premium 1-3% more.

4. Company value: Value is riskier than growth,  giving riskier premium 2-4%

Thus, the expected return invested in small value stock should be given an extra return of 6-10% more than the investment in bonds. 

5. Stock selection is extremely important.  Good stocks will protect one from big loss during downturn. It means that if you stick to it, it will come back after bear market. Alternatively, five star stock mutual funds are good choice and easy to identify from the past performance. It plays a key role in my stock selection.

6. Rebalancing is the key, and it increases return by at least a couple of percent.  So I usually do not invest my assets 100% in stocks, even in 20% down of the market, unless I am well prepared for and have plan B and C to deal with a further downturn.

Thus, the goal is between 15-20%, and it is practical as well as manageable without much effort.

指导思想：

不猜头部，而要让市场自己走出头部再确认；不猜底部，而要让市场走出底部再确认。只要依靠多项技术指标，能够准确的研判出突破的有效性，就完全可以掌握股市先机。确认的技术指标为：KD,  MACD, MA。

最后，祝十八大胜利召开，奥巴马胜利当选，大千同学们的目标顺利实现！

所有跟帖： 

• 低调，要低调。。。。 -luna.lu- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 07:54:02

• 是 是 ， 低调，要低调。力争在奥总任期内完成401K为802K的目标 ！ -俊牛- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 08:01:50

• 加入党章第３节，传抄背诵 -12qw- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 08:05:47

• 同学们共同努力，早日实现401K到802K的宏伟目标！ -俊牛- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 08:09:50

• what is your YTD? mine is 19% as of yesterday. -faseb- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 08:43:54

• You are great. 我的所有投资的总回报和你差不多。 -俊牛- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 08:59:33

• My 401k balance is about 650k. the average annual return -faseb- ♂ (256 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 09:29:59

• It's indeed challanging, but you got a grest return considering -俊牛- ♂ (85 bytes) () 11/09/2012 postreply 09:44:09