金价预测

"Based on the peak in August 23rd ($1927) and the trough in September 26th ($1529) the total price retracement is $398. The blue line is the 50 day Moving Average, and it tracks the fading in and fading out of the markets by institutional and large funds in the market. When price breaks below the MA50 it shows that Institutional investors are getting out and vice versa.
 
If the price breaks above the MA50 line the chances of the market to have a full recovery of its losses ($398) will be very good. In normal conditions, the market will drop at least 2-3 times faster than it goes up. In this case it took about a month for it to drop from $1927 to $1527 and hence the time interval for a full rebound in the price will be at least 2-3 months with Volume being a constant. Hence, the earliest recovery of prices will only happen towards the end of November and December.
 
The immediate target will be 1527 + 199 ($398/2 or 50% rebound) = $1726. If the market is able to break the previous high of 1927, then the subsequent mid term target will be 2325 (1927+398)
.  
The speed of the recovery depends on the Volume. The larger the volume accumulated during the consolidation phase the faster the recovery. This is because the bigger volume indicates that the market participants are more bullish and hence will attract more buyers even though price may go up during the accumulation phase. This will result in an outward shift in the demand curve from its current position and a new equilibrium in the price discovery will be achieved."

 

上面的话虽然是从以前读过的文章中摘录的，但现在来看反而觉得挺靠谱。

http://samcheekong.blogspot.com/2012/02/why-gold-price-is-ripe-for-huge-rally.html