回复:不是很Hard to say

来源: Happyyl 2010-04-22 19:56:04 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 0 次 (1592 bytes)
回答: Hard to sayHappyyl2010-04-22 07:35:20
Thank you for the comments.

What I mean was that it is hard for China to take over Taiwan at the time of Korean War should China have not participated in that war. I agree with you that Mao is a super leader and had led numerous successful efforts to eventually drive away KMD. But his successes are mainly laid on his ability to use his localized strength to beat KMD's weakness. In the three big battles of the civil war, the only time his military force was less than KMD was Huaihai battle. However, added on the supporting efforts, people on his side is still much larger than KMD. In the Korean War, his army was superior in number but not in weaponry. It is also a land war.

To take over Taiwan in early 1950's, China had no way to send the required number of army, weaponry and supplies to create any localized advantages using army only over KMD. CCP's navy and air force were still weaker than Taiwan's even in the early 1990's. That is the reason China needed to buy Su-27's and Russian gun ships at that time. However, I believe the best chance for China to take over Taiwan was the late 1950's. But then the 3-year natural disaster and then the culture revolution ruined the chance.

I also agree with you that even though the economic and military powers now are sufficient to take Taiwan now. The leadership is not strong enough to do so. I also need to add whether the common people have the will power to do it is also a question. The severe corruptions have actually driven a big wedge between the leading group and he common people.
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