More from Yahoo MB.
Here are additional notes:
1. Sinovac is the real deal, not some wild speculative swine flu "play." It is well-managed under Yin's leadership, it has tremendous, multi-faceted support from the Chinese govt., it has rapidly growing profits from three currently marketed vaccines, and it has 12-13 vaccines in its pipeline in various stages of development. (Unless you are a short-term, purely technical trader, go to sinovac.com and to the IR Home page of the Investors tab and download the April investor's presentation.)
2. Sinovac's guidance for calendar 2009 revenue, WITHOUT the H1N1 vaccine is $55-60MM. Again without H1N1, I believe they will significantly exceed this: they only took in $6.6MM in Q1 (a transitional quarter), but $20MM in Q2. Just maintaining the Q2 level for the final two quarters would bring them to $66.6MM and this is very reasonable.
In sticking to the $55-60MM guidance two weeks ago, they said that H1N1 sales would significantly raise this figure, but that they could not yet quantify that, so they left it alone. My post above is my best initial attemp to quantify the H1N1 revenue.
3. For this week and the coming few weeks, I'm not sure any of this matters. This is now a stock that has (not for the first time) gone into a mania where technical factors and the stock market version of the game of chicken have taken over. If Mr. Market decides it's time to sell or it's time to buy more, the fundamentals will not apply. But, for the long term, I believe that a $10 PPS is still very undervalued.
Here are additional notes:
1. Sinovac is the real deal, not some wild speculative swine flu "play." It is well-managed under Yin's leadership, it has tremendous, multi-faceted support from the Chinese govt., it has rapidly growing profits from three currently marketed vaccines, and it has 12-13 vaccines in its pipeline in various stages of development. (Unless you are a short-term, purely technical trader, go to sinovac.com and to the IR Home page of the Investors tab and download the April investor's presentation.)
2. Sinovac's guidance for calendar 2009 revenue, WITHOUT the H1N1 vaccine is $55-60MM. Again without H1N1, I believe they will significantly exceed this: they only took in $6.6MM in Q1 (a transitional quarter), but $20MM in Q2. Just maintaining the Q2 level for the final two quarters would bring them to $66.6MM and this is very reasonable.
In sticking to the $55-60MM guidance two weeks ago, they said that H1N1 sales would significantly raise this figure, but that they could not yet quantify that, so they left it alone. My post above is my best initial attemp to quantify the H1N1 revenue.
3. For this week and the coming few weeks, I'm not sure any of this matters. This is now a stock that has (not for the first time) gone into a mania where technical factors and the stock market version of the game of chicken have taken over. If Mr. Market decides it's time to sell or it's time to buy more, the fundamentals will not apply. But, for the long term, I believe that a $10 PPS is still very undervalued.
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