The DXY is now farther above its 200-day moving average than at nay time since late-2005. If the breakout continues ,it could have some meaningful implications:
1. An appreciating US dollar could have a modestly negative impact on S&P 500 sequential earnings, but the effect might not appear in year-to-year growth rates until early-2009
2. An appreciating US dollar seems to us to be a clear sign that expectation of global growth are faltering. We continues to believe that the markets are focusing on "global slowdown" as opposed to the mid-decade's "global growth" theme.
3. This could be incrementally bullish for US assets. Only 32% of the world's equity markets are outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year (in local currency). With that performanced backdrop, an appreciating dollar could attract "momentum" capital to the US.
4. USD-related M&A activity could pick up as a stronger USD removes a hurdle to dollar based acquisitions by non-dollar buyers.
5. This could be incrementally bearish for commodities. A straw in the wind: copper(a long-standing standard benchmark of global growth expectations) has broken through an important support level.
History shows that the US tends to lead the world in slowdowns and recessions. The global financial markets seem to be following that historical path. We reiterate out themes of high quality debt, defensive sectors , developed markets over emerging markets, and caution toward commodities.
我的看法是美元对欧元今明年都是升（已多次重申），与明年的利润威胁相比，美元强势在今年内对股市的影响很可能是压倒性的。。。所以今年的空都要小心，只适合短平快的交易。我会在市场的拉回处大量增持 INDEX ETFS 多位。 IMO 熊熊小心
1. An appreciating US dollar could have a modestly negative impact on S&P 500 sequential earnings, but the effect might not appear in year-to-year growth rates until early-2009
2. An appreciating US dollar seems to us to be a clear sign that expectation of global growth are faltering. We continues to believe that the markets are focusing on "global slowdown" as opposed to the mid-decade's "global growth" theme.
3. This could be incrementally bullish for US assets. Only 32% of the world's equity markets are outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year (in local currency). With that performanced backdrop, an appreciating dollar could attract "momentum" capital to the US.
4. USD-related M&A activity could pick up as a stronger USD removes a hurdle to dollar based acquisitions by non-dollar buyers.
5. This could be incrementally bearish for commodities. A straw in the wind: copper(a long-standing standard benchmark of global growth expectations) has broken through an important support level.
History shows that the US tends to lead the world in slowdowns and recessions. The global financial markets seem to be following that historical path. We reiterate out themes of high quality debt, defensive sectors , developed markets over emerging markets, and caution toward commodities.
我的看法是美元对欧元今明年都是升（已多次重申），与明年的利润威胁相比，美元强势在今年内对股市的影响很可能是压倒性的。。。所以今年的空都要小心，只适合短平快的交易。我会在市场的拉回处大量增持 INDEX ETFS 多位。 IMO 熊熊小心
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