LDK vs FSLR and other solars

There are many Chinese solar companies listed on US market
However, only LDK is in the upstream market. This means
LDK provides the raw materials(wafer) to those downstream
solar companies. Now LDK buy poly from its upstream suppilers(poly
manufacturer). These days poly is very expensive due to
high demand. The nice part that LDK planed very well. They
saw the issue of poly shortage a couple of years back,
and started building their own poly plants. There are doubts
about the plants can be online for the production on time.
That's why LDK stock valuation is still very low when you compare
to others.

My opinion regardless on time, or delay few months. As long
as it's on production, LDK margin will be improved a lot.
Current LDK can make 40-50 cents each Q. Once they start
using their own ploy, LDK can make close to $1 each Q if
the price of the poly stays in the same range.

Worst of worst poly price going down a lot, LDK still
can maintain its current margin. LDK may not go up, but
definitely will kill its competitors, especially those
with high valuation, like FSLR due to the cost advantage
that LDK has. I know FSLR is thin-film based,
LDK is poly based but eventually they will compete each
other in some(not all) areas.

So, my strategy is buy LDK, and short FSLR.

FSLR got upgraded a couple of times with target price $350.
I love to see it's pushed to $350(just like I like to see oil
to go above $150 or higher, so the bubble could be bigger. short
it will make more money eventually).
Seems like FSLR had trouble to break $300 now. July earning
season is coming. It might be pushed above $300, then it will
be good opportunity establish FSLR short position.

所有跟帖： 

• LDK is highly manipulated stock and is difficult to play -Abacist- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/01/2008 postreply 14:40:16

• ＴＨＡＮＫＳ -都是国人- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/02/2008 postreply 02:19:14