这个熊熊们会高兴点。

not4week 爷呢?
one of the wallstreet trader/analyst said today.

Stocks gapped down at the open yesterday on weaker retail sales and a widening trade deficit. The volatility that usually surrounds a FED meeting certainly took its course, with an initial surge to new uptrend highs Wednesday, followed by an even stronger reversal down yesterday. As a result of this action, the market was able to suck in a few more buyers to the game before reversing fast and hard which essentially trapped the Wednesday buyers. Yesterday, I stated that the market was flashing many warning signs that said it was time to get off the wagon for a bit. The rubber band was simply stretched too far and yesterday it snapped. Hopefully, you all heeded this advice and were not caught off guard by the sell off.

In my last market summary I explained that the uptrend appeared to be in Minor wave 3, of the five Minor waves in this uptrend. And, that the recent move to new highs appeared to be tiring (short term momentum was overbought) and to be on the lookout for a pullback soon. Needless to say, Minor wave 3 did complete at yesterday’s highs, and now Minor wave 4 is currently underway. I also mentioned that this pullback could be sharp and yesterday’s action served as confirmation. Assuming our count is correct, once the Minor wave 4 concludes, the market should again rally to new uptrend highs to complete Minor wave 5 as well as the intermediate term uptrend. As stated yesterday, my SPX target remains at 1530 for this uptrend. At the completion of Minor wave 2 short term momentum displayed a positive RSI divergence at the lows before the market started heading back up. Let’s see if Minor wave 4 provides the same clue to its conclusion. Short term support is at the SPX 1474-77 area, and if need be, the 1464 pivot point. The 1464 pivot point is just two points above the previous uptrend high (1462), so it should provide solid support if approached over time.

For the first time in many weeks and due to the negative divergences present at recent highs, you are see MACD crossovers to the downside. Excluding the Dow Jones Index, all of the major indices are now crossing over to the downside and clearly that’s a bearish sign near to mid term. Although there will certainly be rally attempts, the technical changes taking place suggest that such rally’s will likely fail until the oscillators have unwound from extreme levels. I would view such rally attempts as selling opportunities for reducing underperforming long positions as well as initiating some short positions on index exchange traded funds. Individual stocks are more risky to short due to the number of recent buyouts and stock buybacks in place.

In summary, it appears we are now in the early stages of some type of corrective phase. During this phase, look for some choppy action as the market tries to entice market participants to enter long positions. Currently, the market is showing only sell signals so please keep that in mind if trying to scalp some longs. After examining the charts, I’m expecting more selling to occur in the coming days. There will be rally attempts along the way but the trend is now clearly down, make no mistake about it. Remember cash is a position and patience is required until this pullback has run its course. Relax and take things one day at a time – don’t give back hard earned profits.

Good Trading.

所有跟帖： 

• 俺不是100%的熊啊. -not4weak- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/11/2007 postreply 20:05:37

• 没说您是熊啊。 -nissanusedcar- ♂ (28 bytes) () 05/11/2007 postreply 20:16:38