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For some financial markets, the threat of prolonged inventory adjustments is manifest in the price. Fixed-income markets discount a period of sluggish growth and eventual Fed ease. Commodity markets are now joining in, discounting weaker global growth. Neither is priced for a relatively quick turn in the growth recession, and therein would clearly be the surprise.

That’s not to say there are no downside risks — far from it. Further demand weakness is certainly possible, especially if the production cuts begin to spill over into job cuts. Capital goods demand is another potential weak spot, as recent bookings declines attest. But an end to the inventory cycle could come sooner than many expect, and with it, somewhat firmer economic activity.