02/04

The rise of today is based on a strange logic: worse than expected job data may slow down the pace of increasing interest rate. Although it is a silly explanation, DOW made the largest jump in 2005.

Longs have been expecting a good job data since the beginning of Dec 2004. The data came out three times (Dec, Jan and Feb), but none was encouraging. I do not think a better one may ever come in 2005. However, market is very possible to kill shorts first before it collapse.

As I posted last week, I won't short index until I see a big down day with volume, the down of 02/03 was just not enough. Before that happens, market may keep going up with more unreasonable excuses. Even if you do not buy it, just do not short before the market shows it weakness.

所有跟帖： 

• the truth is -NewAmateur- ♂ (252 bytes) () 02/04/2005 postreply 17:30:38

• The speculating is ungrounded -uptrend- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/04/2005 postreply 17:35:27

• after 6 rate hike in a row -NewAmateur- ♂ (127 bytes) () 02/04/2005 postreply 17:39:23

• not a good sign -uptrend- ♂ (18 bytes) () 02/04/2005 postreply 17:46:32

• market is bullish in short -bull-bear- ♀ (200 bytes) () 02/04/2005 postreply 17:59:03

• Plus, brokage index XBD is -bull-bear- ♀ (48 bytes) () 02/04/2005 postreply 18:02:31

• 一点正经的东西都不懂,就会整天瞎猜,大家说我说的对不对 -你呀你呀- ♀ (0 bytes) () 02/05/2005 postreply 03:58:38

• 回复：02/04 -kingcrab- ♀ (96 bytes) () 02/05/2005 postreply 13:04:01