天然气-- Fundamental is changing to Bullish

天然气-- Fundamental is changing to Bullish

During last 2 months, I Posted 2 message warned everyone NG big down...

Ugaz not too far to $2
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3880935.html

Ugaz not too far to $4
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3842845.html

Finally Ugaz reached $2.XX level now. not sure how many people in 大千 still alive...

Currently, I believe NG FA will be slowly changing to buliish, let's compared to last year, Totally supply (Include Canada imports) is around 76-76.5Bcf/day right now, US dry production is around 70.5bcf/day (down around 2Bcf/day from August-Sept production level) . which is already lower than that of Last year, Last November Reached 72Bcf/day, last Dec Peeked around 74.9Bcf/day.

Coal to NG switched around 4Bcf/day this year. LNG export will be in 3 week, initial 1Bcf/day. new pipleline to Mexico export will be online service in coming Decemeber, maybe will increase arounnd 0.5-1Bcf/day next few months.

So demand side, this increased (permenant increase) around 5 -5.5Bcf/day (150Bcf/Month) more than that of last year, this is more than offset the decrease of Warmer Winter demand (normal winter total used around 2000Bcf. this winter likely will be around 250HDDs-300HDDs less than Normal winter), Actaully, Winter is turning to normal now. EL NINO affection seems is decreaing now.

Of course, US production may return back over 71Bcf/day in the coming weeks, but so many Enery Companies like CHK big trouble under breakEven NG price, I'm doubt Production will increase a lot next few weeks.

My personal point, NG downside is very limit, don't be too greedy on Bear side, Dec Contract is $2.14 now, Jan Contract is $2.28 now, Spot price is $2.16 Last Friday ( I believe Spot Price will jump over $2.2 early next week), Actually the Contango gap already removed a lot last Friday, Jan contract price keep $0.1-$0.15 higher than Spot price is normal...Next week, NG may not have much space to down.

Perosnally I don't think Jan Contract will have much room to down unless it will be extremely warmer in Decemeber, Cot report show that Large Funds continue cut shorts during last 2 weeks, open interest is slowly increasing...

Please don't 跟帖!

Good Luck!

所有跟帖： 

• 还是要跟帖谢谢你。 -RBC111- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 04:07:44

• 你忘记了两点 -熊牛联盟- ♂ (154 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 04:49:59

• 这两点未必有效 -JQKA- ♂ (475 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 06:34:46

• 天然气的下跌正是这两点造成的 -熊牛联盟- ♂ (161 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 06:49:14

• I will close my short position on ugaz soon, which you asked me -跟锋- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 05:25:45

• 我非常同意greenarrow的观点。。今冬气的价格可能会去3，3.5 -新手吗- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 06:46:15

• 大冷天会涨一些。但2.6是冬天的铁顶。若能到2.6，我就巨大盈利了。 -tzbcwbc- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 07:35:56

• 2016夏天大热天会回到3元 -tzbcwbc- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 07:37:09

• thanks! very good -longtermInvestor- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 08:51:57

• 不赞同，可能是明年的今天，但不会是今天，除非ｃｈｋ今天破产 -tom_high- ♂ (147 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 09:53:58

• 希望借你吉言，下周气涨。 -汤吉可得- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 17:24:58

• 真准，跳高开了。。。 -inner__peace- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 17:34:31

• 你可能看错月份了。 -tom_high- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/22/2015 postreply 18:14:40