Long time not post any message here, see so many people buy Ugaz hold for winter rally, probably will be disappointment.
December Contract price right now is almost 20 cents higher that November price, huge contango rollover will hapen soon, this will kill Ugaz.
Supply side, Production keep over 72Bcf/day, plus Canada import, around 78Bcf/day. no producer want to cut supply. 3Bcf/day oversupply last week.
Demand: Strong EI NiNO, warmer Oct, November and December coming (late winter this year).
If production not cut supply quickly, I don't think there will be a big rally (over $1) like last year, 30-40 cents possible when the cold weather come.
Next week, report will be around 100Bcf again, if NG not bounce early next week, I don't think Ugaz will come back to $8, even $7, What I see $4 or $3 Ugaz is not too far.
Ugaz/Dgaz only suitable for trade, not good for hold.
Disclose: I have some Ugaz on hand, hedge by Dgaz, if NG bounce Monday, will sell Ugaz. and will only DT Ugaz/Dgaz this winter.
This is only message I post here this year, Please don't 跟帖!
