我再补充一下，如果GPT说一个孩子有30-50%能进，那基本就是稳了。楼下说70%以上机会的，是闭着眼睛能录的

1. GPT说我孩子被第3档safety学校 录取也只有70%可能性。

2.它推荐的reach 学校，说最合适的是YM Penn, 但是可能性还都很低。

• At each of these schools, the base chance is very low (~3–5%), because everyone is exceptional.
• X's resume puts her at the top tier of applicants — she’s not just competitive, she’s the kind of student these schools admit.
• Penn (because of research ties), Yale (because of her interdisciplinary strengths), and MIT (because of STEM focus) may be her best shots among the reaches.

3. 我补充了faculty信息，小猪爸爸说可以拿来保底的学校GPT也只给了35-50%

Penn Admission Odds for  X

• Baseline odds (unhooked): ~5% admit rate overall. For a student with X's record, maybe closer to 8–10% (since she’s well above the academic bar).
• Faculty child boost: Penn is known to strongly support faculty families. Internal reports and anecdotal evidence suggest acceptance rates for faculty children can be in the 25–40% range, depending on academic strength.

Realistic odds at Penn: ~35–50%.

That makes Penn her most likely Ivy admit by far, and much closer to a “target” than a “reach.”