习近平和中国未来的政治和经济格局

While the recently concluded U.S. midterm elections were monopolizing media attention in this country, some significant developments were taking place in China as well concerning that country’s leadership. The most important was the recent appointment of Xi Jinping as vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission. While Xi has been vice president of China since March 2008, his newest title strongly suggests that he is the designated successor to Hu Jintao when Hu steps down from his position as Communist party chairman in 2012 and as president of the country in 2013, as he is slated to do. Just as every U.S. president is also commander-in-chief of the nation’s military, the president in China usually is the military commission’s chairman (there have been two exceptions) and is considered the country’s top leader.

It’s instructive to compare Xi’s background with that of the typical officeholder in the U.S. Xi, as is true of many Chinese leaders, has trained as an engineer, studying chemical engineering at the prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing. In addition, he gained practical economic experience as a young man when, as the son of a party veteran, he helped oversee the opening of southern China’s economy. By contrast, most U.S. officeholders have a background limited largely to law (Xi, admittedly, also went on to obtain a doctorate in law).

It isn’t surprising that, with their training as engineers, China’s leaders are keenly aware of the need to improve the country’s infrastructure, particularly its alternative energy infrastructure, and have made doing so among their top priorities. Similarly, with their backgrounds in economics, China’s leaders understand that the country can’t sustain an export-driven economy over the long term and thus have been working to make internal consumer demand a more important economic driver.

Of course, another big difference between leaders in the U.S. and China relates to the demands of governing in a democratic versus an autocratic country. Whatever you think of their policies in such areas as human rights, China’s leaders can focus on long-term goals, and the country can benefit from this fixed purpose and continuity among its leadership.

With such clear direction from the top, China’s economy can continue to grow. Beneficiaries of that growth are including all the energy, commodity, and precious metals that remain top investment choices.

（from Dr. Stephen Leeb's e-mail）