it's age/worth dependent

来源: 2010-12-02 12:52:34 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

say you have $1m now, and I let you flip a coin.... if you win you get $10m, if you lose you lose the $1m and you have $0, will you take the bet?

I wouldn't, because the increase of $9m actually has less effect on my quality of life, than the decrease of $1m.

I think the moves I made were still reasonable, with good level of confidence based on my 10000-hour stare... but at this stage, there is really no need to chase absolute return any more.

Like I said I will never run out of money to spend.... I will likely work till I am 70.. and I can't give too much to my kids.... eventually it all goes to charity, so why risk too much... right?

now change the question above a bit, say you have $100k now, you win the flip you get $1m, you lose the flip you lose $100k... I have an impression that you and I am close in age/worth, so I'd say knowing what I know now, I will take that bet any day.