回复：现在市场是两边抽，今天抽熊熊，明天抽牛牛，抽死为止!

stock market are so complex so diverse, function of so many variables. it is impossible to capture or predict. it is not random, but it is worse than random process.

any action theory or any action according to any kind of analysis is biased, therefore your chances of any thoughtful transaction is less than 50%, I would give 30 or 40%. this is why most people just lose money. And sometimes the smarter they are, the more money they lose...