MU Memory 会快过剩吗？

https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/cfzh/53419.html 

I do not know the answer. 

I used chatGPT to list new Western fabs (China not included). Normally memory use wafers is about 1/3. 

 

Updated Fab Capacity with Approx. Monthly Wafer Throughput (WSPM) next 3 years

Company / Fab	Location	Tech Focus	Approx. Monthly Capacity (WSPM)	Expected 300?mm Ops
TSMC – Fab?21 (Phase?1)	Arizona, USA	Logic (4?nm/5?nm)	~20,000 → ~30,000	2025–2027
TSMC – Fab?21 (Full campus)	Arizona, USA	Logic (3?nm/2?nm)	~20,000–40,000+	2027–2030+
TSMC – Taiwan Advanced Node Fabs	Taiwan (Hsinchu/Kaohsiung)	Logic (3?nm/2?nm/1.4?nm)	~40,000–80,000+	2025–2028
Samsung – Taylor	Texas, USA	Logic	~20,000–30,000	2026–2028
Texas Instruments – Sherman	Texas, USA	Analog & Power	~20,000–30,000	2025–2028
GlobalFoundries – Fab?8.2	Malta, NY, USA	Specialty & RF	~30,000–50,000	2026–2027
Micron – Idaho (ID1)	Idaho, USA	DRAM	~20,000–40,000	2027
Micron – Idaho (ID2)	Idaho, USA	DRAM	~20,000–40,000	2028
Micron – Taiwan (P5 acquired)	Taiwan (Tongluo)	DRAM	~30,000–50,000*	2H 2027
Micron – P5 (initial)	Taiwan (Tongluo)	DRAM	~20,000–30,000 (early)	2H 2027
SK hynix – Yongin Fab?1	Korea	DRAM/HBM	~40,000–60,000	2027
SK hynix – Cheongju (M15X)	Korea	DRAM	~30,000–50,000	2025–2026
Samsung – Pyeongtaek (P5)	Korea	Memory	~40,000–60,000	2028
SanDisk/Kioxia – Kitakami Fab?2	Japan	NAND Flash	~30,000–50,000	2025–2026
TSMC / JASM Phase?2	Japan	Logic	~20,000–40,000	2027
ESMC (TSMC+ Partners)	Germany	Specialty Logic	~20,000–40,000	2027–2028
Intel – Fab 52 & Extensions (Ocotillo)	Arizona, USA	Logic / Intel Foundry	~15,000–25,000 (current throughput)	Operational today
Intel – New Albany “Ohio One”	Ohio, USA	Logic (future)	Not meaningful 2025–2028	Delayed to 2030+