分享个人数据分析的单个例子

我想让AI分析一下2x ETF和3x ETF的风险。尝试了好几个AI chatbot. 只有gemini和grok完全理解了我的意图并且生成了精确的表格。chatgpt误解了表格后面两列的意思。claude给出的数字接近但是并不精确，有点奇怪。我估计他们都是通过生成程序来计算的，也就是把我的问题当成了一个编程题。deepseek也生成了正确答案，但是是通过在推理过程中蛮力一行行算出来的。有点神奇，但更高效的方式应该是写python程序，然后运行程序。kimi生成的表格后面几列也是错误的。

目前体感是gemini 3领先所有AI模型。最能准确理解我的意图，生成的答案比较凝炼到位。chatgpt有时候误解我的意图，生成的答案有时候有点啰嗦。gemini 3可能不是断代领先，但确实能感受到有明显优势，或者智商更高。因为有些问题gemini 3能搞定而其它AI搞不定，应该还是很有优势的。作为开发者和用户会倾向于用它，因为好用，最聪明。另外nano banana pro图像生成功能按新闻感觉是断代领先，不过我还没有体验。

我的prompt:

Draw a table to study the loss and requirements for recovery for 2x leveraged etf to understand its risk, with the following columns:

 

Original stock loss percentage (say 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 30%)
2x etf loss percentage
Percentage required to rise for original stock to recover
2x etf loss percentage after the original stock has already recovered
Percentage required to rise for 2x ETF to recover
Percentage required to rise for the original stock so 2x ETF can fully recover

 

Gemini 3 生成的答案。而且Gemini 3 用flash model (比较快而小的模型）也能得到正确答案。

Key Takeaways and Risk Explanation

The primary risk of leveraged ETFs is the effect of volatility decay (also known as compounding risk), which this table demonstrates:

• Magnified Loss: The $2\times$ ETF magnifies the stock's loss. A $20\%$ drop in the stock results in a $40\%$ drop in the ETF.

• Non-Linear Recovery: Due to the loss, a larger percentage gain is required to recover. A stock that drops $20\%$ needs to gain $25\%$ to break even.

• The Compounding Effect (Volatility Decay): The most critical column is $2\times$ ETF Loss After Stock Recovers. Even after the underlying stock has fully recovered its initial loss, the $2\times$ ETF is still at a loss. For example, if the stock drops $20\%$ and then rises $25\%$ to break even, the $2\times$ ETF is still down $10.00\%$. This "decay" is the result of compounding returns on a smaller base value after the initial loss.

• Greater Recovery Required: To fully recover the $2\times$ ETF after an initial $30\%$ drop, the ETF must gain an astonishing $150.00\%$ from its low point. This means the underlying stock must rise $75.00\%$ (since it's a $2\times$ leveraged product) from the ETF's low point, which is far greater than the $42.86\%$ the stock needed just to recover its own initial $30\%$ loss.